(Не)совершенная случайность. Как случай управляет нашей жизнью Млодинов Леонард

115

Quoted in Alan Dershowitz, Reasonable Doubts: The Criminal Justice System and the O.J. Simpson Case (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996), p. 101.

116

Federal Bureau of Investigation, «Uniform Crime Reports», http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm.

117

Alan Dershowitz, The Best Defense (New York: Vintage, 1983), p. xix.

118

Pierre-Simon de Laplace, quoted in James Newman, ed., The World of Mathematics (Mineola, N.Y.: Dover Publications, 1956): 2:1323.

119

Sarah Kershaw and Eli Sanders, «Recounts and Partisan Bickering Bring Election Fatigue to Washington Voters», New York Times, December 26, 2004; and Timothy Egan, «Trial for Governor's Seat Set to Start in Washington», New York Times, May 23, 2005.

120

Jed Z. Buchwald, «Discrepant Measurements and Experimental Knowledge in the Early Modern Era», Archive for History of Exact Sciences 60, no. 6 (November 2006): 565–649.

121

Eugene Frankel, «J. B. Biot and the Mathematization of Experimental Physics in Napoleonic France», in Historical Studies in the Physical Sciences, ed. Russell McCormmach (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1977).

122

Charles Coulston Gillispie, ed., Dictionary of Scientific Biography (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 1981), p. 85.

123

Дискуссию на тему ошибок радиолокаторов смотрите: Nicole Weisensee Egan, «Takin' Aim at Radar Guns», Philadelphia Daily News, March 9, 2004.

124

Charles T. Clotfelter and Jacob L. Vigdor, «Retaking the SAT» (working paper SAN01-20, Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, N.C., July 2001).

125

Eduardo Porter, «Jobs and Wages Increased Modestly Last Month», New York Times, September 2, 2006.

126

Gene Epstein on «Mathemagicians», On the Media, WNYC radio, broadcast August 25, 2006.

127

Legene Quesenberry et al., «Assessment of the Writing Component within a University General Education Program», November 1, 2000;

http://wac.colostateedu/aw/articles/quesenberry2000/quesenberry2000.pdf.

128

Kevin Saunders, «Report to the Iowa State University Steering Committee on the Assessment of ISU Comm-English 105 Course Essays», September 2004;

www.iastate.edu/~isucomm/InYears/ISUcomm_essays.pdf (accessed 2005; site now discontinued).

129

University of Texas, Office of Admissions, «Inter-rater Reliability of Holistic Measures Used in the Freshman Admissions Process of the University of Texas at Austin», February 22, 2005;

http://www.utexas.edu/student/admissions/research/Inter-raterReliability2005.pdf.

130

Emily J. Shaw and Glenn B. Milewski, «Consistency and Reliability in the Individualized Review of College Applicants», College Board, Office of Research and Development, Research Notes RN-20 (October 2004): 3;

http://www.collegeboardcom/research/pdf/RN-20.pdf.

131

Gary Rivlin, «In Vino Veritas», New York Times, August 13, 2006.

132

William James, The Principles of Psychology (New York: Henry Holt, 1890), p. 509.

133

Robert Frank and Jennifer Byram, «Taste-Smell Interactions Are Tastant and Odorant Dependent», Chemical Senses 13 (1988): 445-55.

134

A. Rapp, «Natural Flavours of Wine: Correlation between Instrumental Analysis and Sensory Percepton», Fresenius' Journal of Analytic Chemistry 337, no. 7 (January 1990): 777-85.

135

D. Laing and W. Francis, «The Capacity of Humans to Identify Odors in Mixtures», Physiology and Behavior 46, no. 5 (November 1989):809-14; and D. Laing et al., «The Limited Capacity of Humans to Identify the Components of Taste Mixtures and Taste-Odour Mixtures», Perception 31, no. 5 (2002): 617-35.

136

For the rose study, see Rose M. Pangborn, Harold W. Berg, and Brenda Hansen, «The Influence of Color on Discrimination of Sweetness in Dry Table-Wine», American Journal of Psychology 76, no. 3 (September 1963): 492-95. For the anthocyanin study, see G. Morrot, F. Brochet. and D. Dubourdieu, «The Color of Odors», Brain and Language 79, no. 2 (November 2001): 309-20.

137

Hilke Plassman, John O'Doherty, Baba Shia, and Antonio Rongel, «Marketing Actions Can Modulate Neural Representations of Experienced Pleasantness», Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, January 14, 2008; http://www.pnas.org.

138

M. E. Woolfolk, W. Castellan, and C. Brooks, «Pepsi versus Coke: Labels, Not Tastes, Prevail», Psychological Reports 52 (1983): 185-86.

139

M. Bende and S. Nordin, «Perceptual Learning in Olfaction: Professional Wine Tasters Versus Controls», Physiology and Behavior 62, no. 5 (November 1997): 1065-70.

140

Gregg E. A Solomon, «Psychology of Novice and Expert Wine Talk», American Journal of Psychology 103, no. 4 (Winter 1990): 495–517.

141

Rivlin, «In Vino Veritas.»

142

Ibid.

143

Hal Stern, «On the Probability of Winning a Football Game», American Statistician 45, no. 3 (August 1991): 179-82.

144

The graph is from Index Funds Advisors, «Index Funds.com: Take the Risk Capacity Survey», http://www.indexfunds3.com/step3page2.php, where it is credited to Walter Good and Roy Hermansen, Index Your Way to Investment Success (New York: New York Institute of Finance, 1997). The performance of 300 mutual fund managers was tabulated for ten years (1987–1996), based on the Morningstar Principia database

145

Polling Report, «President Bush-Overall Job Rating», http://pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm.

146

«Poll: Bush Apparently Gets Modest Bounce», CNN, September 8, 2004;

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/06/presidential.poll/index.html.

147

«Harold von Braunhut», Telegraph, December 23, 2003;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/12/24/db2403.xml.

148

James J. Fogarty, «Why Is Expert Opinion on Wine Valueless?» (discussion paper 02.17, Department of Economics, University of Western Australia, Perth, 2001)

149

Stigler, The History of Statistics, p. 143.

150

Holland, What Are the Chances? p. 51.

151

Это лишь приблизительные расчеты, в основе которых лежат последние данные по американской статистике. Смотрите: U.S. Social Security Administration, 'Actuarial Publications: Period Life Table.' Наиболее свежие данные находятся по адресу:

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html.

152

Immanuel Kant, quoted in Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking: 1820–1900 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1988), p. 51.

153

U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, «Licensed Drivers, Vehicle Registrations and Resident Population»;

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/ohim/hs03/htm/dlchrt.htm.

154

U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, «Motor Vehicle Safety Data»,

http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/2002/html/table_02_17.html.

155

«The Domesday Book», History Magazine, October/November 2001.

156

For Graunt's story, see Hacking, The Emergence of Probability, pp. 103-9; David, Gods, Games and Gambling, pp. 98-109; and Newman, The World of Mathematics, 3:1416-18.

157

Hacking, The Emergence of Probability, p. 102.

158

Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking, p. 19.

159

For Graunt's original table, see Hacking, The Emergence of Probability, p. 108. For the current data, see World Health Organization, «Life Tables for WHO Member States», http://www.who.int/whosis/database/life_tables/life_tables.cfm. The figures quoted were taken from abridged tables and rounded.

160

Ian Hacking, The Taming of Chance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), p. vii.

161

H. A. David, «First (?) Occurrence of Common Terms in Statistics and Probability», in Annotated Readings in the History of Statistics, ed. H. A. David and A.W.F. Edwards (New York: Springer, 2001), appendix В and pp. 219-28.

162

Noah Webster, American Dictionary of the English language (1828; — facsimile of the 1st ed., Chesapeake, Va.: Foundation for American Christian Education, 1967).

163

The material on Quetelet is drawn mainly from Stigler, The History of Statistics, pp. 161–220; Stephen Stigler, Statistics on the Table: The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1999), pp. 51–66; and Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking, pp. 100-9.

164

Louis Menand, The Metaphysical Club (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2001), p. 187.

165

Holland, What Are the Chances? pp. 41–42.

166

David Yermack, «Good Timing: CEO Stock Option Awards and Company News Announcements», Journal of Finance 52, no. 2 (June 1997): 449-76; and Erik Lie, «On the Timing of CEO Stock Option Awards», Management Science 51, no. 5 (May 2005): 802-12. See also Charles Forelle and James Bandler, «The Perfect Payday-Some CEOs Reap Millions by Landing Stock Options When They Are Most Valuable: Luck-or Something Else?» Wall Street Journal, March 18, 2006.

167

Justin Wolfers, «Point Shaving: Corruption in NCAA Basketball», American Economic Review 96, no. 2 (May 2006): 279-83.

168

Stern, «On the Probability of Winning a Football Game.»

169

David Leonhardt, «Sad Suspicions about Scores in Basketball», New York Times, March 8, 2006.

170

Richard C. Hollinger et al., National Retail Security Survey: Final Report (Gainesville: Security Research Project, Department of Sociology and Center for Studies in Criminal Law, University of Florida, 2002–2006).

171

Adolphe Quetelet, quoted in Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking, p. 54.

172

Quetelet, quoted in Menand, The Metaphysical Club, p. 187.

173

Jeffrey Kluger, «Why We Worry about the Things We Shouldn't.. and Ignore the Things We Should», Time, December 4, 2006, pp. 65–71.

174

Gerd Gigerenzer, Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989), p. 129.

175

Menand, The Metaphysical Club, p. 193.

176

De Vany, Hollywood Economics; see part IV, «A Business of Extremes.»

177

See Derek William Forrest, Francis Galton: The Life and Work of a Victorian Genius (New York: Taplinger, 1974); Jeffrey M. Stanton, «Galton, Pearson, and the Peas: A Brief History of Linear Regression for Statistics Instructors», Journal of Statistics Education 9, no. 3 (2001); and Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking, pp. 129-46.

178

Francis Galton, quoted in Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking, p. 130.

179

Peter Doskoch, «The Winning Edge», Psychology Today, November/ December 2005, pp. 44–52.

180

Deborah J. Bennett, Randomness (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1998), p. 123.

181

Abraham Pais, The Science and Life of Albert Einstein (London: Oxford University Press, 1982), p. 17; see also the discussion on p. 89.

182

On Brown and the history of Brownian motion, see D.J. Mabberley, Jupiter Botanicus: Robert Brown of the British Museum (Braunschweig, Germany, and London: Verlag von J. Cramer / Natural History Museum, 1985); Brian J. Ford, «Brownian Movement in Clarkia Pollen: A Reprise of the First Observations», Microscope 40, no. 4 (1992): 235-41; and Stephen Brush, «A History of Random Processes. I. Brownian Movement from Brown to Perrin», Archive for History of Exact Sciences 5, no. 34 (1968).

183

Pais, Albert Einstein, pp. 88-100.

184

Albert Einstein, quoted in Ronald William Clark, Einstein: The Life and Times (New York: HarperCollins, 1984), p. 77.

185

See Arthur Conan Doyle, The History of Spiritualism (New York: G. H. Doran, 1926); and R. L. Moore, In Search of White Crows: Spiritualism, Parapsychology, and American Culture (London: Oxford University Press, 1977).

186

Ray Hyman, «Parapsychological Research: A Tutorial Review and Critical Appraisal», Proceedings of the IEEE 74, no. 6 (June 1986): 823-49.

187

Michael Faraday, «Experimental Investigation of Table-Moving», Athenaeum, July 2, 1853, pp. 801-3.

188

Michael Faraday, quoted in Hyman, «Parapsychological Research», p. 826.

189

Faraday, quoted ibid.

190

See Frank H. Durgin, «The Tinkerbell Effect: Motion Perception and Illusion», Journal of Consciousness Studies 9, nos. 5–6 (May-June 2002): 88-101.

191

Christof Koch, The Quest for Consciousness: A Neurobiological Approach (Englewood, Colo.: Roberts, 2004), pp. 51–54.

192

The study was D. O. Clegg et al., «Glucosamine, Chondroitin Sulfate, and the Two in Combination for Painful Knee Osteoarthritis», New England Journal of Medicine 354, no. 8 (February 2006): 795–808. The interview was «Slate's Medical Examiner: Doubts on Supplements», Day to Day, NPR broadcast, March 13, 2006.

193

See Paul Slovic, Howard Kunreuther, and Gilbert F. White, «Decision Processes, Rationality, and Adjustment to Natural Hazards», in Natural Hazards: Local, National, and Global, ed. G. F White (London: Oxford University Press, 1974); see also Willem A. Wagenaar, «Generation of Random Sequences by Human Subjects: A Critical Survey of Literature», Psychological Bulletin 77, no. 1 (January 1972): 65–72.

194

See Hastie and Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, pp. 19–23.

195

George Spencer-Brown, Probability and Scientific Inference (London: Longmans, Green, 1957), pp. 55–56. Actually, 10 is a gross underestimate.

196

Janet Maslin, «His Heart Belongs to (Adorable) iPod», New York Times, October 19, 2006.

197

Hans Reichenbach, The Theory of Probability, trans. E. Hutton and M. Reichenbach (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1934).

198

The classic text expounding this point of view is Burton G. Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, now completely revised in an updated 8th ed. (New York: W. W. Norton, 2003).

199

John R. Nofsinger, Investment Blunders of the Rich and Famous — and What You Can Learn from Them (Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice Hall, Financial Times, 2002), p. 62.

200

Hemang Desai and Prem C. Jain, «An Analysis of the Recommendations of the 'Superstar' Money Managers at Barron's Annual Roundtable», Journal of Finance 50, no. 4 (September 1995): 1257-73.

201

Jess Beltz and Robert Jennings, «Wall $treet Week with Rukeyser's Recommendations: Trading Activity and Performance», Review of Financial Economics 6, no. 1 (1997): 15–27; and Robert A. Pari, «Wall $treet Week Recommendations: Yes or No?» Journal of Portfolio Management 14, no. 1 (1987): 74–76.

202

Andrew Metrick, «Performance Evaluation with Transactions Data: The Stock Selection of Investment Newsletters», Journal of Finance 54, no. 5 (October 1999): 1743-75; and «The Equity Performance of Investment Newsletters» (discussion paper no. 1805, Harvard Institute of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass., November 1997).

203

James J. Choi, David Laibson, and Brigitte Madrian, «Why Does the Law of One Price Fail? An Experiment on Index Mutual Funds» (working paper no. W12261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass., May 4, 2006).

204

Leonard Koppett, «Carrying Statistics to Extremes», Sporting News, February 11, 1978.

205

By some definitions, Koppett's system would be judged to have failed in 1970; by others, to have passed. See CHANCE News 13.04, April 18, 2004-June 7, 2004,

http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chance_news/recent_news/chance_news_13.04.html.

206

As touted on the Legg Mason Capital Management Web site,

http://www.leggmasoncapmgmt.com/awards.htm.

207

Lisa Gibbs, «Miller: He Did It Again», CNNMoney, January 11, 2004,

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/07/funds/ultimateguide_billmiller_0204.

208

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