Âçëåòû è ïàäåíèÿ ãîñóäàðñòâ. Ñèëû ïåðåìåí â ïîñòêðèçèñíîì ìèðå Øàðìà Ðó÷èð

“Growth US Tight Oil Production Will Present New Challenges Both in North America and Globally.” Eurasia Group, November 28, 2012.

Hillenbrand, Barry. “America in the Mind of Japan.” Time, February 10, 1992. Ho, Giang, and Paolo Mauro. “Growth: Now and Forever.” International Monetary Fund, 2014.

Im, Fernando Gabril, and David Rosenblatt. “Middle Income Traps A Conceptual and Empirical Survey.” World Bank Operations and Strategy Unit, Working Paper no. 6594, September 2013.

Joffe, Josef. “China’s Coming Economic Slowdown.” Wall Street Journal, October 25, 2013.

Kraay, Aart, and David McKenzie. “Do Poverty Traps Exist? Assessing the Evidence.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 28, no. 3 (2014): 127–48.

Lomax, John, and Wietse Nijenhuis. “Not in a (Middle-Income) Trap.” HSBC Research, 2013.

Magnus, George. “Hitting a BRIC Wall: The Risk of the Middle Income Trap.” UBS Investment Research, January 21, 2013.

Mahbubani, Kishore. “Why Singapore Is the World’s Most Successful Society.” Huffington Post, August 4, 2015.

“A Mean Feat,” Economist, January 9, 2016.

Mondino, Guillermo, and Fernando Diaz. “When Do Recessions Turn into Depressions? A Note on Growth Mean-Reversion in EM.” Citi Research, February 18, 2016.

Moore, Elaine. “‘Supranationals’ Borrow at Record Levels.” Financial Times, September 24, 2014.

O’Neill, Jim. “Why China Will Disappoint the Pessimists Yet Again.” Bloomberg News, September 25, 2013.

O’Neill, Jim. “Who You Calling a BRIC?” Bloomberg News, November 12, 2013.

Partlow, Joshuya, and Gabriela Martinez. “Mexican President’s Popularity Slips Despite Legislative Wins.” Washington Post, September 3, 2014.

Pritchett, Lant, and Lawrence Summers. “Asiaphoria Meets Regression to the Mean.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 20573, October 2014.

Raiser, Martin. “Relaunching the European Convergence Machine.” Globalist, January 29, 2013.

Rodrik, Dani. “No More Growth Miracles.” Project Syndicate, 2012.

Roy, Nilanjana S. “Of Indian Elections, Onions and Salt.” New York Times, November 20, 2013.

Ruhashyankiko, J. F. “Africa Knocking at IMF’s Door.” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, September 10, 2014.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin Tops Forbes’ 2015 Ranking of the World’s Most Powerful People.” Forbes, November 4, 2015.

Sharma, Ruchir. “The Third Coming.” Economic Times, October 3, 2012.

Sharma, Ruchir. “The Oil and Gold Booms Are Over.” Bloomberg News, May 5, 2013.

Subramaniam, Arvin. “Too Soon to Mourn Emerging Markets.” Financial Times, October 7, 2013.

“Timeline: Reforms in Burma.” BBC News, April 22, 2013.

Wolf, Martin. “Why China’s Economy Might Topple.” Financial Times, April 3, 2013.

Yap, Cecilia, Siegfrid Alegado, and Karl Lester. “Philippine Growth Rises for Best Three Years Since Mid-1950s.” Bloomberg News, January 28, 2015.

Zakaria, Fareed. The Post-American World and the Rise of the Rest. New York: Norton, 2008.

Îá àâòîðå

Ðó÷èð Øàðìà – ðóêîâîäèòåëü íàïðàâëåíèÿ ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ðûíêîâ è ãëàâíûé ãëîáàëüíûé ñòðàòåã èíâåñòèöèîííîãî ïîäðàçäåëåíèÿ êîìïàíèè Morgan Stanley. Ïîä åãî óïðàâëåíèåì – àêòèâû íà ñóììó áîëåå äâàäöàòè ìëðä äîëëàðîâ. Øàðìà ìíîãî ïóòåøåñòâóåò: êàæäûé ìåñÿö îí îòïðàâëÿåòñÿ íà íåäåëþ â î÷åðåäíóþ ñòðàíó, ãäå âñòðå÷àåòñÿ ñ âåäóùèìè ïîëèòèêàìè, ðóêîâîäèòåëÿìè êîìïàíèé è äðóãèìè ìåñòíûìè äåÿòåëÿìè.

Æóðíàëèñòèêîé Øàðìà íà÷àë çàíèìàòüñÿ åùå ðàíüøå, ÷åì ñòàë èíâåñòîðîì. Åãî ñòàòüè ïîñòîÿííî ïå÷àòàþòñÿ â Wall Street Journal, Financial Times è â Times of India. Ýññå âûõîäèëè â Foreign Affairs, Time, New York Times, Foreign Policy, Forbes è Bloomberg View. Çíà÷èòåëüíóþ ÷àñòü ïðîøëîãî äåñÿòèëåòèÿ îí áûë ðåäàêòîðîì â Newsweek è âåë òàì ïîñòîÿííóþ êîëîíêó “Ãëîáàëüíûé èíâåñòîð”. Åãî ïåðâàÿ êíèãà Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles ñòàëà áåñòñåëëåðîì íîìåð îäèí â Èíäèè, áåñòñåëëåðîì æóðíàëà Wall Street Journal è ïîä äâàäöàòü ïåðâûì íîìåðîì âîøëà â ñïèñîê êíèã äëÿ ÷òåíèÿ â 2012 ãîäó, ñîñòàâëåííûé æóðíàëîì Foreign Policy.

 îêòÿáðå 2015 ãîäà Bloomberg íàçâàë Øàðìó îäíèì èç ïÿòèäåñÿòè ñàìûõ âëèÿòåëüíûõ ëþäåé ìèðà.  2012-ì æóðíàë Foreign Policy âêëþ÷èë åãî â êàòåãîðèþ âåäóùèõ ìûñëèòåëåé ìèðà, à â èþíå 2013-ãî ãëàâíûé åæåäíåâíûé æóðíàë Èíäèè Outlook íàçâàë îäíèì èç äâàäöàòè ïÿòè ñàìûõ óìíûõ èíäèéöåâ ìèðà.  2007 ãîäó íà Âñåìèðíîì ýêîíîìè÷åñêîì ôîðóìå â Äàâîñå Øàðìà âîøåë â ñïèñîê âåäóùèõ ìîëîäûõ ëèäåðîâ.

Øàðìà óâëå÷åí áåãîì, ðåãóëÿðíî çàíèìàåòñÿ ñ áûâøèì òðåíåðîì îëèìïèéñêîé ñáîðíîé è ó÷àñòâóåò â ñïðèíòåðñêèõ çàáåãàõ.

1

Mark P. Lagon and Arch Puddington, “Democracy Takes a Global Hit,” Wall Street Journal, January 27, 2016.

2

Arthur Miller, “The Year It Came Apart,” New York Magazine, December 30, 1974.

3

Harry Wu, “China’s Growth and Productivity Performance Debate Revisited – Accounting for China’s Sources of Growth with a New Data Set,” The Conference Board, Report no. EPWP1401, February 2014.

4

Ghada Fayad and Roberto Perrelli, “Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Investigation,” International Monetary Fund, 2014.

5

Lant Pritchett and Lawrence Summers, “Asiaphoria Meets Regression to the Mean,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 20573, October 2014.

6

“Goodhart’s Law,” BusinessDictionary.com.

7

James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations (New York: Doubleday, 2004).

8

Ned Davis, Ned’s Insights, November 14, 2014.

9

“Picking Apart the Productivity Paradox,” Goldman Sachs Research, October 5, 2015.

10

Rick Gladstone, “India Will Be Most Populous Country Sooner Than Thought.” New York Times, July 29, 2015.

11

Charles S. Pearson, On the Cusp: From Population Boom to Bust (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015).

12

Tristin Hopper, “A History of the Baby Bonus: Tories Now Tout Benefits of Program They Once Axed,” National Post, July 13, 2015.

13

Richard F. Hokenson, “Retiring the Current Model of Retirement,” Hokenson Research, March 2004.

14

Andrew Mason, “Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in Developing and Developed Countries,” United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, August 31–September 2, 2005.

15

“Women, Business, and the Law 2014,” World Bank, 2013.

16

Peter Hessler, “Learning to Speak Lingerie,” New Yorker, August 10, 2015.

17

“Fair Play: More Equal Laws Boost Female Labor Force Participation,” International Monetary Fund, 2015.

18

Jim Yong Kim, “CNBC Excerpts: CNBC’s Sara Eisen Speaks with World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim on CNBC’s ‘Squawk Alley’ Today,” transcript of interview by Sara Eisen, CNBC, October 1 2015.

19

Caglar Ozden and Mathis Warner, “Immigrants versus Natives? Displacement and Job Creation,” World Bank, 2014.

20

BCA Research, “The End of Europe’s Welfare State,” Weekly Report, June 26, 2015.

21

Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford University Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013.

22

David Rotman, “How Technology Is Destroying Jobs,” MIT Technology Review, June 12, 2013.

23

John Markoff, “The Next Wave,” Edge, July 16, 2015.

24

Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World and the Rise of the Rest (New York: Norton, 2008).

25

Jonathan Wheatley, “Brazil’s Leader Blames White People for Crisis,” Financial Times, March 27, 2009.

26

Global Emerging Markets Equity Team, “Tales from the Emerging World: The Myths of Middle-Class Revolution,” Morgan Stanley Investment Management, July 16, 2013.

27

“The Quest for Prosperity,” Economist, May 15, 2007.

28

Saeed Naqvi, “A Little Left of Self Interest,” The Friday Times, June 26, 2015.

29

William Easterly, The Tyranny of Experts: Economists, Dictators, and the Forgotten Rights of the Poor (New York: Basic Books, 2014).

30

“Global Wealth Report 2014,” Credit Suisse Research Institute, 2014.

31

Richard Fry and Rakesh Kochhar, “America’s Wealth Gap between Middle-Income and Upper-Income Families Is Widest on Record,” Pew Research Center, December 17, 2014.

32

“The World’s Billionaires,” Forbes, 2015.

33

Andrew Berg and Jonathan Ostry, “Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin?” IMF Staff Discussion Note, 2011.

34

Bradford Johnson, “Retail: The Wal-Mart Effect; Information Technology Isn’t the Whole Story Behind Productivity,” McKinsey Quarterly (Winter 2002).

35

Robert Peston, “Inequality Is Bad for Growth, Says OECD,” BBC News, May 21, 2015.

36

Roger Altman, “Blame Bond Markets, Not Politicians, for Austerity,” Financial Times, May 8, 2013.

37

Ahmed Feteha, “Welcome to Egypt’s Fake Weddings: Get High, Leave Lots of Cash,” Bloomberg News, June 23, 2015.

38

Ronald Coase and Ning Wang, How China Became Capitalist (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013).

39

Jun Ma, Audrey Shi, and Shan Lan, “Deregulation and Private Sector Growth,” Deutsche Bank Research Report, September 13, 2013.

40

Anders Aslund, “How Russia Mismanaged the Financial Crisis,” Moscow Times, February 27, 2013.

41

Amy Li, “Premier Li Keqiang Makes Case for Deeper Economic Reforms over Stimulus,” South China Morning Post, May 1, 2014.

42

Liz Matthew, “Manmohan Singh Should Have Put Foot Down, Cancelled 2G Licences,” Indian Express, November 8, 2014.

43

Yannis Palaiologos, “Syriza Must Let Markets and Meritocracy Rule,” Financial Times, May 12, 2015.

44

Rickards, James. Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis (New York: Portfolio/Penguin, 2012).

45

Antonia Ax: son Johnson and Stefan Persson, “Do Not Fight Free Trade – It Makes Countries Richer,” Financial Times, July 23, 2015.

46

Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson, “The Rise of Europe: Atlantic Trade, Institutional Change, and Economic Growth,” American Economic Review 95, no. 3 (2005): 546–79.

47

John Boudreau, “The Biggest Winner from TPP Trade Deal May Be Vietnam,” Bloomberg News, October 8, 2015; Eurasia, July 2015.

48

Victor Essien, “Regional Trade Agreements in Africa: A Historical and Bibliographic Account of ECOWAS and CEMAC,” NYU Global, 2006.

49

Moiss Nam, “The Most Important Alliance You’ve Never Heard Of,” Atlantic, February 17, 2014.

50

Ibid.

51

Peter Zeihan, The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder (New York: Twelve, 2014).

52

Sumana Manohar, Hugo Scott-Gall, and Megha Chaturvedi, “Small Dots, Big Picture: Is Trade Set to Fade?” Goldman Sachs Research, September 24, 2015.

53

Dani Rodrik, “The Perils of Premature Deindustrialization,” Project Syndicate, 2013.

54

Ejaz Ghani, William Robert Kerr, and Alex Segura, “Informal Tradables and the Employment Growth of Indian Manufacturing,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper no. 7206, March 2, 2015.

55

Jaithirth Rao, “How They Killed Our Factories,” Indian Express, January 20, 2014.

56

Ejaz Ghani and Stephen D. O’Connell, “Can Service Be a Growth Escalator in Low-Income Countries?” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2014.

57

Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, “Investment Cycles and Startup Innovation,” Journal of Finance Economics 110, no. 2 (2013): 403–18.

58

Ebrahim Rahbari, Willem Buiter, Joe Seydl, and George Friedlander, “Poor Productivity, Poor Data, and Plenty of Polarisation,” Citi Research, August 12, 2015.

59

Tom Burgis, The Looting Machine: Warlords, Oligarchs, Corporations, Smugglers, and the Theft of Africa’s Wealth (New York: PublicAffairs, 2015).

60

Helge Berger and Mark Spoerer, “Economic Crises and the European Revolutions of 1848,” Journal of Economic History 61, no. 2 (June 2001): 293–326.

61

Martin Paldam, “Inflation and Political Instability in Eight Latin American Countries,” Public Choice 52, no. 2 (1987): 143–68.

62

Marc Bellemare, “Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, June 26, 2014.

63

“World Bank Tackles Food Emergency,” BBC News, April 14, 2008.

64

Neil Irwin, “Of Kiwis and Currencies: How a 2 % Inflation Target Became Global Economic Gospel,” New York Times, December 19, 2014.

65

Jim Reid, Nick Burns, and Seb Barker, “Long-Term Asset Return Study: Bonds: The Final Bubble Frontier?” Deutsche Bank Markets Research Report, September 10, 2014.

66

Irving Fisher, “The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depression,” St. Louis Federal Reserve, n.d.

67

David Hackett Fischer, The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996).

68

Claudioo Bordio, Magdalena Erdem, and Andrew Filardo, “The Costs of Deflations: A Historical Perspective,” Bank of International Settlements, 2015.

69

“Toward Operationalizing Macroprudential Policies: When to Act?” chapter 3 in Global Financial Stability Report (International Monetary Fund, September 2011).

70

scar Jord, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor, “Leveraged Bubbles,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 21486, August 2015.

71

Ed Lowther, “A Short History of the Pound,” BBC News, February 14, 2014.

72

Caroline Freund, “Current Account Adjustment in Industrialized Countries,” International Finance Discussion Papers (U. S. Federal Reserve, 2000).

73

Rudi Dornbusch, interview by Frontline, PBS, 1995.

74

Paul Davidson, “IMF Chief Says Global Growth Still Too Weak,” USA Today, April 2, 2014.

75

Oliver Harvey and Robin Winkler, “Dark Matter: Hidden Capital Flows That Drive G10 Exchange Rates,” Deutsche Bank Markets Research Report, March 6, 2015.

76

“EM Macro Daily: China Capital Outflow Risk – The Curious Case of the Missing $ 300 Billions,” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, January 13, 2015.

77

Muhamad Chatib Basri and Hal Hill, “Ideas, Interests, and Oil Prices: The Political Economy of Trade Reform During Soeharto’s Indonesia,” World Economy 27, no. 5 (2004): 633–55.

78

“China’s Rigged IPOs,” Wall Street Journal, December 2, 2015.

79

Tim Congdon, “The Debt Threat,” Economic Affair 9, no. 2 (January 1989): 42–44.

80

Michael Goldstein, Laura Dix, and Alfredo Pinel, “Post Crisis Blues: The Second Half Improves,” Empirical Research Partners, November 2011.

81

Barry Hillenbrand, “America in the Mind of Japan,” Time, February 10, 1992.

82

John F. Copper, Historical Dictionary of Taiwan (Republic of China), 4th ed. (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield).

83

Young-lob Chung, South Korea in the Fast Lane: Economic Development and Capital Formation (New York, Oxford University Press, 2007).

84

Lant Pritchett and Lawrence Summers, “Asiaphoria Meets Regression to the Mean,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 20573, October 2014.

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