180
Eun-Jae Lee, Yong-Hwan Kim, Dong-Wha Kang et al., Deep into the brain: artificial intelligence in stroke imaging, Journal of Stroke, vol. 19, no. 3, 2017, pp. 277–285, https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5647643/.
181
Taylor Kubota, Deep learning algorithm does as well as dermatologists in identifying skin cancer, Stanford News, 25 Jan. 2017, https://news.stanford.edu/2017/01/25/artificial-intelligence-used-identify-skin-cancer/.
182
Российский аналог Jeopardy! – “Своя игра”. (Прим. перев.)
183
Buckle (англ.) – пряжка; гнуть; сгибаться под давлением, уступать; рухнуть; ответ на вопрос в игре: “Что означает слово buckle?” (Прим. перев.)
184
С Байесом мы еще встретимся в главе “Автомобили”.
185
Jenning Brown, Why everyone is hating on IBM Watson, including the people who helped make it, Gizmodo, 14 Aug. 2017, https://gizmodo.com.au/2017/08/why-everyone-is-hating-on-watsonincluding-the-people-who-helped-make-it/.
186
https://theregister.co.uk/2017/02/20/watson_cancerbusting_trial_on_hold_after_damning_audit_report/
187
Casey Ross and Ike Swetlitz, IBM pitched its Watson supercomputer as a revolution in cancer care. It’s nowhere close, STAT, 5 Sept. 2017, https://statnews.com/2017/09/05/watson-ibm-cancer/.
188
Tomoko Otake, Big data used for rapid diagnosis of rare leukemia case inJapan, Japan Times, 11 Aug. 2016, https://japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/08/11/national/science-health/ibm-big-data-used-for-rapid-diagnosis-of-rare-leukemia-case-in-japan/#.Wf8S_hO0MQ8.
189
Researchers validate five new genes responsible for ALS, Science Daily, 1 Dec. 2017, https://sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/12/171201104101.htm.
190
John Freedman, A reality check for IBM’s AI ambitions, MIT Technology Review, 27 June 2017.
191
Asthma facts and statistics, Asthma UK, 2016, https://asthma.org.uk/about/media/facts-and-statistics/; Asthma in the US, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, May 2011, https://cdc.gov/vitalsigns/asthma/index.html.
192
Schoolgirl, 13, who died of asthma attack was making regular trips to A&E and running out of medication – but was NEVER referred to a specialist even when her lips turned blue, mother tells inquest, Daily Mail, 13 Oct. 2015, http://dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3270728/Schoolgirl-13-died-asthma-attack-not-referred-specialist-lips-turned-blue.html.
193
My Data, My Care: How Better Use of Data Improves Health and Wellbeing (London: Richmond Group of Charities, Jan. 2017), https://richmondgroupofcharities.org.uk/publications.
194
Terence Carney, Regulation 28: report to prevent future deaths, coroner’s report on the case of Tamara Mills, 29 Oct. 2015, https://judiciary.gov.uk/publications/tamara-mills/.
195
Jamie Grierson and Alex Hern, Doctors using Snapchat to send patient scans to each other, panel finds, Guardian, 5 July 2017, https://theguardian.com/technology/2017/jul/05/doctors-using-snapchat-to-send-patient-scans-to-each-other-panel-finds.
196
Даже если удастся каким-либо способом обойти все эти помехи, может не хватить собственно данных. Существуют тысячи редких, можно сказать, уникальных заболеваний с генетической подоплекой. Зачастую медикам трудно поставить такой диагноз из-за того, что во многих случаях они за всю свою практику не встречали подобных патологий. Ни один алгоритм не решит задачу, имея очень маленькую выборку.
197
Hal Hodson, Revealed: Google AI has access to huge haul of NHS patient data, New Scientist, 29 April 2016, https://www.newscientist.com/article/2086454-revealed-google-ai-has-access-to-huge-haul-of-nhs-patient-data/.
198
По правде говоря, вина, скажем так, за “юридически неправомерный” контракт почти полностью лежит на подразделении Государственной службы здравоохранения, которое, наверное, слишком поспешно бросилось сотрудничать со знаменитой компанией в области искусственного интеллекта. Посмотрите письмо дамы-командора Фионы Колдикотт, главы ведомства, защищающего национальные данные, которое оказалось в распоряжении телевизионного канала Sky News: Alex Martin, Google received 1.6 million NHS patients’ data on an “inappropriate legal basis”, Sky News, 15 May 2017, https://news.sky.com/story/google-received-1–6-million-nhs-patients-data-on-an-inappropriate-legal-basis-10879142
199
Denis Campbell, Surgeons attack plans to delay treatment to obese patients and smokers, Guardian, 29 Nov. 2016, https://theguardian.com/society/2016/nov/29/surgeons-nhs-delay-treatment-obese-patients-smokers-york.
200
Nir Eyal, Denial of treatment to obese patients: the wrong policy on personal responsibility for health, International Journal of Health Policy and Management, vol. 1, no. 2, Aug. 2013, pp. 107–10, https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3937915/.
201
О том, как это было, см. http://galton.org/essays/1880–1889/galton-1884-jaigi-anthro-lab.pdf.
202
Francis Galton, On the Anthropometric Laboratory at the late international health exhibition, Journal of the Anthropological Institute of Great Britain and Ireland, vol. 14, 1885, pp. 205–221.
203
Taste, https://permalinks.23andme.com/pdf/samplereport_traits.pdf.
204
Sneezing on summer solstice? 23andMeBlog, 20 June 2012, https://blog.23andme.com/health-traits/sneezing-on-summer-solstice/.
205
Find out what your DNA says about your health, traits and ancestry, 23andMe, https://www.23andme.com/en-gb/dna-health-ancestry/.
206
Kristen v. Brown, 23andMe is selling your data but not how you think, Gizmodo, 14 April 2017, https://gizmodo.com/23andme-is-selling-your-data-but-not-how-you-think-1794340474.
207
Michael Grothaus, How23andMe is monetizing your DNA, Fast Company, 15 Jan. 2015, https://fastcompany.com/3040356/what-23andme-is-doing-with-all-that-dna.
208
Rob Stein, Found on the Web, with DNA: a boy’s father, Washington Post, 13 Nov. 2005, http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/12/AR2005–111200958.html.
209
Получив результаты анализа ДНК, этот парень нашел определенный участок своей Y-хромосомы (тот, что передается от отца к сыну) еще у двух человек с одинаковой фамилией, дальних родственников по отцовской линии. Их фамилии вкупе с местом и датой рождения его отца оказалось достаточно, чтобы его вычислить.
210
M. Gymrek, A. L. McGuire, D. Golan, E. Halperin and Y. Erlich, Identifying personal genomes by surname inference, Science, vol. 339, no. 6117, Jan. 2013, pp. 321–324, https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23329047.
211
В настоящее время коммерческие лаборатории не проводят тесты ДНК на болезнь Гентингтона.
212
Matthew Herper, 23andMe rides again: FDA clears genetic tests to predict disease risk, Forbes, 6 April 2017, https://forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2017/04/06/23andme-rides-again-fda-clears-genetic-tests-to-predict-disease-risk/#302aea624fdc.
213
Мой друг, генетик Адам Резерфорд, подробно объяснил мне, почему на самом деле нельзя сказать, викинг вы или нет. Я просто хотела его поддразнить. Научное обо-снование этому вы найдете в его книге A Brief History of Everyone Who Ever Lived: The Stories in Our Genes (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2016). (Русское издание: Резерфорд А. Краткая история всех, кто когда-либо жил. М.: “Бомбора”, 2019).
214
DARPA, Grand Challenge 2004: Final Report (Arlington, VA: Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency, 30 July 2004), http://esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/DARPA/15-F-0059_GC_2004_FINAL_RPT_7–30-2004.pdf.
215
The Worldwide Guide to Movie Locations, 7 Sept. 2014, http://movie-locations.com/movies/k/Kill_Bill_Vol_2.html#.WkYiqrTQoQ8.
216
Mariella Moon, What you need to know about DARPA, the Pentagon’s mad science division, Engadget, 7 July 2014, https://engadget.com/2014/07/07/darpa-explainer/.
217
DARPA, Urban Challenge: Overview, http://archive.darpa.mil/grandchallenge/overview.html.
218
Sebastian Thrun, Winning the DARPA Grand Challenge, 2 Aug. 2006, YouTube, 8 Oct. 2007, https://youtube.com/watch?v=j8zj5lBpFTY.
219
DARPA, Urban Challenge: Overview.
220
DARPA Grand Challenge 2004 – road to…, YouTube, 22 Jan. 2014, https://youtube.com/watch?v=FaBJ5sPPmcI.
221
Alex Davies, An oral history of the DARPA Grand Challenge, the grueling robot race that launched the self-driving car, Wired, 8 March 2017, https://www.wired.com/story/darpa-grand-challenge-2004-oral-history/.
222
Desert race too tough for robots, BBC News, 15 March 2004, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/3512270.stm.
223
Davies, An oral history of the DARPA Grand Challenge.
224
Denise Chow, DARPA and drone cars: how the US military spawned self-driving car revolution, LiveScience, 21 March 2014, https://livescience.com/44272-darpa-self-driving-car-revolution.html.
225
Joseph Hooper, From Darpa Grand Challenge 2004 DARPA’s debacle in the desert, Popular Science, 4 June 2004, https://popsci.com/scitech/article/2004–06/darpa-grand-challenge-2004darpas-debacle-desert.
226
Davies, An oral history of the DARPA Grand Challenge.
227
DARPA, Report to Congress: DARPA Prize Authority. Fiscal Year 2005 Report in Accordance with 10 U. S. C. 2374a, March 2006, http://archive.darpa.mil/grandchallenge/docs/grand_challenge_2005_report_to_congress.pdf.
228
Alan Ohnsman, Bosch and Daimler to partner to get driverless taxis to market by early 2020s, Forbes, 4 April 2017, https://forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2017/04/04/bosch-and-daimler-partner-to-get-driverless-taxis-to-market-by-early-2020s/#306ec7e63c4b.
229
Ford, Looking Further: Ford Will Have a Fully Autonomous Vehicle in Operation by 2021, https://corporate.ford.com/innovation/autonomous-2021.html.
230
Should your driverless car hit a pedestrian to save your life? New York Times, 23 June 2016, https://nytimes.com/2016/06/24/technology/should-your-driverless-car-hit-a-pedestrian-to-save-your-life.html.
231
Clive Thompson, Anna Wiener, Ferris Jabr, Rahawa Haile, Geoff Manaugh, Jamie Lauren Keiles, Jennifer Kahn and Malia Wollan, Full tilt: when 100 per cent of cars are autonomous, New York Times, 8 Nov. 2017, https://nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/08/magazine/tech-design-autonomous-future-cars-100-percent-augmented-reality-policing.html#the-end-of-roadkill.
232
Peter Campbell, Trucks headed for a driverless future: unions warn that millions of drivers’ jobs will be disrupted, Financial Times, 31 Jan. 2018, https://ft.com/content/7686ea3e-e0dd-11e7-a0d4–0944c5f49e46.
233
Markus Maurer, J. Christian Gerdes, Barbara Lenz and Hermann Winner, Autonomous Driving: Technical, Legal and Social Aspects (New York: Springer, May 2016), p. 48.
234
Stephen Zavestoski and Julian Agyeman, Incomplete Streets: Processes, Practices, and Possibilities (London: Routledge, 2015), p. 29.
235
Maurer et al., Autonomous Driving, p. 53.
236
David Rooney, Self-guided Cars (London: Science Museum, 27 Aug. 2009), https://blog.sciencemuseum.org.uk/self-guided-cars/.
237
Blake Z. Rong, How Mercedes sees into the future, Autoweek, 22 Jan. 2014, http://autoweek.com/article/car-news/how-mercedes-sees-future.
238
Dean A. Pomerleau, ALVINN: An Autonomous Land Vehicle In a Neural Network, CMU-CS-89–107 (Pittsburgh: Carnegie Mellon University, Jan. 1989), http://repository.cmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2874&context=compsci.
239
ALVINN, Autonomous Land Vehicle In a Neural Network – автономное сухопутное транспортное средство на основе нейронной сети. (Прим. перев.).
240
LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) – обнаружение и определение дальности с помощью света. (Прим. перев.)
241
A. Filgueira, H. Gonzlez-Jorge, S. Lagela, L. Diaz-Vilario and P. Arias, Quantifying the influence of rain in LiDAR performance, Measurement, vol. 95, Jan. 2017, pp. 143–148, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2016.10.009; https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0263224116305577.
242
Chris Williams, Stop lights, sunsets, junctions are tough work for Google’s robo-cars, The Register, 24 Aug. 2016, https://theregister.co.uk/2016/08/24/google_self_driving_car_problems/.
243
Novatel, IMU Errors and Their Effects, https://novatel.com/assets/Documents/Bulletins/APN064.pdf.
244
Сама теорема представляет собой уравнение, связывающее вероятность выполнения гипотезы при наступлении события и вероятность наступления события при условии, что гипотеза верна. Более научное объяснение см. по ссылке https://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule/?l=1zq.
245
Sharon Bertsch McGrayne, The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2011).
246
В компьютере IBM Watson, о котором шла речь в главе “Медицина”, активно используется так называемый байесовский вывод. См. https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/library/os-ind-watson/.
247
Перси Диаконис, математик из Стэнфордского университета, очень точно выразился об автомобиле своей команды, в конечном итоге победившем в гонках 2005 года: “В этой машине каждый винтик байесовский”.
248
В прессе, начиная с New York Times и заканчивая Mail On Sunday, перебирались различные сценарии. Что, если дорогу переходит девяностолетняя старушка? А если ребенок? Вдруг в машине сидит нобелевский лауреат? Дилемма, в сущности, одна и та же.
249
Jason Kottke, Mercedes’ Solution to the Trolley Problem, Kottke.org, 24 Oct. 2016, https://kottke.org/16/10/mercedes-solution-to-the-trolley-problem.
250
Все цитаты из личной беседы с Полом Ньюменом.
251
Naaman Zhou, Volvo admits its self-driving cars are confused by kangaroos, Guar-dian, 1 July 2017, https://theguardian.com/technology/2017/jul/01/volvo-admits-its-self-driving-cars-are-confused-by-kangaroos.
252
Все цитаты из личной беседы с Джеком Стилгоу.
253
Jeff Sabatini, The one simple reason nobody is talking realistically about driverless cars, Car and Driver, Oc. 2017, https://caranddriver.com/features/the-one-reason-nobody-is-talking-realistically-about-driverless-cars-feature.
254
William Langewiesche, The human factor, Vanity Fair, 17 Sept. 2014, https://vanityfair.com/news/business/2014/10/air-france-flight-447-crash.
255
Bureau d’Enqutes et d’Analyses pour la Scuriti de l’Aviation Civile, Final Report on the Accident on 1st June 2009 to the Airbus A330–203 registered F-GZCP operated by Air France Flight AF447 Rio de Janeiro – Paris, Eng. edn (Paris, updated July 2012), https://bea.aero/docspa/2009/f-cp090601.en/pdf/f-cp090601.en.pdf.
256
Ibid.
257
Langewiesche, The human factor.
258
Ibid.
259
Jeff Wise, What really happened aboard Air France 447, Popular Mechanics, 6 Dec. 2011, http://popularmechanics.com/flight/a3115/what-really-happened-aboard-air-france-447–6611877/.
260
Langewiesche, The human factor.
261
Wise, What really happened aboard Air France 447.
262
Lisanne Bainbridge, Ironies of automation, Automatica, vol. 19, no. 6, Nov. 1983, pp. 775–779, https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0005109883900468.
263
Кое-что можно сделать, чтобы компенсировать недостаток практического опыта. Например, после катастрофы самолета Air France в обучении пилотов стали обращать больше внимания на управление при сбоях автопилота, и летчикам настоятельно рекомендуют почаще выключать автопилот, чтобы не терять мастерства.
264
Ibid.
265
Alex Davies, Everyone wants a level 5 self-driving car – here’s what that means, Wired, 26 July 2016.
266
Justin Hughes, Car autonomy levels explained, The Drive, 3 Nov. 2017, http://thedrive.com/sheetmetal/15724/what-are-these-levels-of-autonomy-anyway.
267
Bainbridge, Ironies of automation.
268
Jack Stilgoe, Machine learning, social learning and the governance of self-driving cars, Social Studies of Science, vol. 48, no. 1, 2017, pp. 25–56.
269
Eric Tingwall, Where are autonomous cars right now? Four systems tested, Car and Driver, Oct. 2017, https://caranddriver.com/features/where-are-autonomous-cars-right-now-four-systems-tested-feature.
270
Tracey Lindeman, Using an orange to fool Tesla’s autopilot is probably a really bad idea, Motherboard, 16 Jan. 2018, https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/a3na9p/tesla-autosteer-orange-hack.
271
Daisuke Wakabayashi, Uber’s self-driving cars were struggling before Arizona Crash, New York Times, 23 March 2018, https://nytimes.com/2018/03/23/technology/uber-self-driving-cars-arizona.html.
272
Sam Levin, Video released of Uber self-driving crash that killed woman in Arizona, Guardian, 22 March 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/22/video-released-of-uber-self-driving-crash-that-killed-woman-in-arizona.
273
Audi, The Audi vision of autonomous driving, Audi Newsroom, 11 Sept. 2017, https://media.audiusa.com/en-us/releases/184.
274
Поднявшись на следующую ступеньку частичной автоматизации, машины третьего уровня – такие, как Audi с системой управления в плотном трафике, – способны при определенных условиях, когда все хорошо, полностью брать контроль на себя. Водитель должен быть готов к активным действиям, если машина попадет в непонятную ей ситуацию, но неотрывно следить за дорогой и автомобилем уже не нужно. Здесь можно провести аналогию с подростком, которому велели помыть посуду.
275
P. Morgan, C. Alford and G. Parkhurst, Handover Issues in Autonomous Driving: A Lite-rature Review. Project Report (Bristol: University of the West of England, June 2016), http://eprints.uwe.ac.uk/29167/1/Venturer_WP5.2Lit%20ReviewHandover.pdf.
276
Langewiesche, The human factor.
277
Evan Ackerman, Toyota’s Gill Pratt on self-driving cars and the reality of full autonomy, IEEE Spectrum, 23 Jan. 2017, https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/ransportation/self-driving/toyota-gill-pratt-on-the-reality-of-full-autonomy.
278
Julia Pyper, Self-driving cars could cut greenhouse gas pollution, Scientific American, 15 Sept. 2014, https://scientificamerican.com/article/self-driving-cars-could-cut-greenhouse-gas-pollution/.
279
Raphael E. Stern et al., Dissipation of stop-and-go waves via control of autonomous vehicles: field experiments, arXiv: 1705.01693v1, 4 May 2017, https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.01693.
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