Необязательная страна Наср Вали

¹¹⁴ Farideh Farhi, «Anatomy of a Nuclear Breakthrough Gone Backwards», Middle East Research and Information Project, December 8, 2009, http://www.merip.org/mero/merol120809.

¹¹⁵ Martin Indyk, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael O’Hanlon, Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012), pp. 196—98.

¹¹⁶ John Parker, Persian Dreams: Moscow and Teheran Since the Fall of the Shah (Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2008).

¹¹⁷ Mark Katz, «Iran and Russia», Iran Primer, United States Institute for Peace, http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/iran-and-russia.

¹¹⁸ Parsi, Single Roll of the Dice, p. 193.

¹¹⁹ «The Iran Nuclear Issue: The View from Beijing», Asia Briefing no. 100 (overview). International Crisis Group, February 17, 2010, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east– asia/china/B100-the-iran-nuclear-issue-the-view-from-beijing.aspx.

¹²⁰ Dennis Ross and David Makovsky, Myths, Illusions, and Peace: Finding a New Direction for America in the Middle East (New York: Viking, 2009), p. 221.

¹²¹ Parag Khanna, The Second World Empire and Influence in the New Global Order (New-York Random House, 2008).

¹²² Parsi, Single Roll of the Dice, pp. 172–193.

¹²³ Там же. С. 187.

¹²⁴ Там же. С. 192.

¹²⁵ Julian Borger, «Text of the Iran-Brasil0Turkey Deal», Guardian, May 17, 2010, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2010/may/17/iran-brasil-turkey-nuclear.

¹²⁶ Sanger, Confront and Conceal, pp. 186—87. Roger Cohen, «Doctrine of Silence», New York Times, November 28, 2011. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/opinion/cohen-doctrine-of-silence.html.

¹²⁷ Hussein Mousavian, Iran’s Nuclear Crisis, p. 17.

¹²⁸ Roger Cohen, «Doctrine of Silence», New York Times, November 28, 2011. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/opinion/cohen-doctrine-of-silence.html.

¹²⁹ Mark Perry, «False Flag», Foreign Policy, January, 13, 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/13/false_flag.

¹³⁰ «Spymaster: Meir Dagan on Iran’s Threat», 60 Minutes, March 11, 2012, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301—18560_162—57394904/the-spymaster-meir-dagan-0n-irans-threat/?tag=contentMain; cbsCarousel.

¹³¹ Roger Bergman, «Will Israel Attack Iran?» New York Tomes, January 29, 2012, p. MM22.

¹³² Vali Nasr, «Hard-Line U. S. Policy Tips Iran Towards Belligerence», Bloomberg View, January 4, 2012, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012—01–05/hard-line-u-s-policy-tips-iran-towards-belligerence-vali-nasr.html; «Council on Foreign Relations Foreign Affairs Focus: Vali Nasr on US-Iran Relations», YouTube, January 25, 2012, http://youtube/NaFC9WFUPfc.

¹³³ Fareed Zakaria, «To Deal With Iran’s Nuclear Future, Go Back to 2008». Washington Post, October 26, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/to-deal-with-irans-nuclear-future-go-back-to-2008/2011/10/26/gIQADQyEKM_story.html?hpid=z3.

¹³⁴ William H. Luers and Thomas Pickering, «Military Action Isn’t the Only Solution to Iran», Washington Post, December 30, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/military-action-isnt-the-only-solution-to-iran/2011/12/29/gIQA69sNRP_story.html; William H. Luers and Thomas Pickering, «Envisioning a Deal with Iran», New York Times, February 2, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/opinion/envisioning-a-dael-with-iran.html.

¹³⁵ Kateria Azarova and Anissa Naouai, «Step by Step: Russia’s Plan to Bring Iran Back for Good», RT News, August 17, 2011. http://rt.com/politics/iran-approves-russian-nuclear/.

¹³⁶ «Iran Will Consider Russia’s Nuclear Plan», Press TV, January 28, 2012, http://presstv.com/detail/223505.html.

¹³⁷ Joshua Hersh, «Iran Assassination Plot: Skeptics Question Motive and Method of an ‘Amateur Hour’ Scheme», Huffington Post, October 12, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/12/iran-assassination-plot-skeptics_n_1008068.html.

¹³⁸ Susanne Maloney, «Obama’s Counterproductive New Iran Sanctions», Foreign Affairs, January 5, 2012. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137011/suzanne-maloney/obamas-counterproductive-new-iran-sanctions.

¹³⁹ Высказывание бывшего иранского дипломата, цит. по: Steve Inskeep, «Iran’s Decider: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei», National Public Radio, February 23, 2012, http://www.npr.org/2012/02/23/147277389/meet-irans-decider-supreme-leader-khamenei.

¹⁴⁰ «Text of Obama’s Speech to AIPAC», Associated Press, March 4, 2012, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ioftJOjiGfowjv-eLtNgGAVnxphA?docId=1d833bbc98324e338a99fbeccb38b763.

¹⁴¹ Ollie Heinonen, «The 20 Percent Solution», Foreign Policy, January 11, 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/11/the_20_percent_soluyion.

¹⁴² Richard Haas, «Enough Is Enough», Newsweek, January 22, 2010, http://www.thedailybeast.com/nesweek/2010/01/21/enough-is-enough.html.

¹⁴³ См.: Fareed Zakaria, «How History Could Deter Iranian Aggression», Washington Post, February 15, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/history-could-be-a-deterrent-to-iranian-aggression/2012/02/15/gIQA6UVcGR_story.html, а также «Deterring Iran Is Best Option», Washington Post, March 14, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/deterring-iran-is-the-best-option/2012/03/14/gIQA0Y9mCS_story.html; Bruce Riedel, «Iran Is Not an Existential Threat», thedailynewsegypt.com, January 20, 2012, http://thedailynewsegypt.com/global-views/iran-is-not-an-existential-threat.html; Maloney, «How to Contain a Nuclear Iran». Более ранние повторы этих дебатов освещены у: David Sanger, «Debate Grows on Nuclear Containment of Iran», New York Times, March 13, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/14/weekinreview/14sanger.html. О том, как может выглядеть сдерживание, см.: James Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, «After Iran Gets the Bomb: Containment and Its Complications», Foreign Affairs, March/April2010, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66032/james-m-lindsay-and-ray-takeyh/after-iran-gets-the-bomb.

¹⁴⁴ «Vice President Biden: Iraq Could Be One of the Great Achievements of This Administration», ABC News, February 11, 2011, http://abcnres.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/02/vice-president-biden-iraq-could-be-one-of-the-great-achievements-of-this-administration/.

¹⁴⁵ Kenneth Pollock, «Maliki Dilemma», National Interest, February 1, 2012, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-maliki-dilemma-6418.

¹⁴⁶ Toby Dodge, «The Resistible Rise of Nuri Al-Maliki», Opendemocracy, March 22, 2012, http://www.opendemocracy.net/toby-dodge/resistible-rise-of-nuri-al-maliki.

¹⁴⁷ Liz Sly, «U.S. Policy on Iraq Questioned as Influence Wanes, Maliki Consolidates Power», Washington Post, April 8, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-policy-on-iraq-questioned-as-influence-wanes/2012/04/08/gIQAHEAU4S_story.html?hpid=z1.

¹⁴⁸ Joseph R. Biden and Leslie H. Gelb, «Unity Through Autonomy in Iraq», New York Times, May 1, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/01/opinion/01biden.html?pagewanted=all.

¹⁴⁹ Joseph R. Biden, «A Plan to Hold Iraq Together», Washington Post, August 24, 2006, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301419.html; «Biden Vows to Fight Troop Surge in Iraq», CBS News, February 11, 2009, http://www.cbsnews.com/2100—250_162—2299237.html.

¹⁵⁰ Michael R. Gordon and Bernard E. Trainor, The Endgame: The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq, from George W. Bush to Barack Obama (New York: Pantheon, 2012), pp. 628—50.

¹⁵¹ Michael R. Gordon, «Failed Efforts and Challenges of America’s Last Months in Iraq», New York Times, September23, 2012, p. A1.

¹⁵² Martin S. Indyk, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael E. O’Hanlon, Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012).

¹⁵³ Gordon and Trainor, The Endgame, p. 657.

¹⁵⁴ Sly, «U.S. Policy on Iraq Questioned».

¹⁵⁵ Serena Chaudhry, «Feeling Marginalized, Some Iraq Sunnis Eye Autonomy», Reuters. January 1, 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/01/us-iraq-politics-sunnis-idUSTRE80005620120101.

¹⁵⁶ «Kurdish Leader Accuses Iraqi PM of Leading Country to ‘Dictatorship’»Al-Arabiya News, March 21, 2012, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/03/21/202063.html.

¹⁵⁷ Salah Nasrawi, «2011: Why Did Iraq Miss the Arab Spring?» Ahram Online, December 31, 2011, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/30638/World/Region/-Why-did-Iraq-miss-the-Arab-Spring.aspx.

¹⁵⁸ Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future (New York: Norton, 2006).

¹⁵⁹ Vali Nasr, «When Shiites Rise», Foreign Affairs, July/August 2006, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61733/vali-nasr/when-the-shiits-rise.

¹⁶⁰ David Laitin, Hegemony and Culture: Politics and Religious Change Among the Yoruba (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1986).

¹⁶¹ Существует множество научных исследований, объясняющих отсутствие межобщинного насилия, когда государства могут обосновать власть меньшинства, что затрудняет возможность бунта. Donald Horovitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987); Roger Peterson, Understanding Ethnic Violence (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Stuart Kaufman, Modern Hatreds: The Symbolic Politics of Ethnic War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2001).

¹⁶² Vali Nasr, «Regional Implications of Shia Revival in Iraq», Washington Quarterly 27, no. 3 (Summer 2004): 7—24.

¹⁶³ Vali Nasr, «Syria After the Fall», New York Times, July 29, 2012, p. SR4; Fouad Ajami, The Syrian Rebellion (Stanford, CA, Hoover Institution Press, 2012), pp. 111—34.

¹⁶⁴ О важности этих гражданских связей см.: Ashutosh Varshney, Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life: Hindus and Muslims in India (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2002).

¹⁶⁵ О том, как политический интерес мог нарушить политические взгляды на самоидентификацию и превратить его в насилие, см.: Paul R. Brass, The Production of Hindu-Muslim Violence in Contemporary India (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2011).

¹⁶⁶ Steven Wilkinson, Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India (New York: Cambridge University, 2004).

¹⁶⁷ Benjamin Miller, States, Nations, and Great Powers: The Sources of Regional War and Peace (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).

¹⁶⁸ Niall Fergusson, The War of the World (new York: Penguin, 2006), pp. 28–30, 255.

¹⁶⁹ Vali Nasr, «If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly», New York Times, August 27, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=all.

¹⁷⁰ Ayad Allawi, «How the U.S. and the World Can Help Iraq», Washington Post, August 31, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-the-us-and-world-can-help-iraq/2011/08/30/gIQAIPZxsJ_story.html.

¹⁷¹ Jim Lobe, «US Standing Plunges Across the Arab World», Al-Jazeera, July 14, 2011, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/featutes/2011/07/2011714413787827.html.

¹⁷² Martin S. Indyk, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael E. O’Hanlon, Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012), p. 112.

¹⁷³ Там же. С. 121.

¹⁷⁴ Там же. С. 122.

¹⁷⁵ Там же.

¹⁷⁶ Dan Ephron, «The Wrath of Mahmoud Abbas», Daily Beast, April 24, 2011. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/04/25/mahmoud-abbas-interview-palestinian-leader-frustration-with-obama.html.

¹⁷⁷ Jim Lobe, «US Standing Plunges Across the Arab World», Al-Jazeera, July 14, 2011, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/07/2011714104413787827.html.

¹⁷⁸ «President Barak Obama’s Inaugural Address», White House Blog, http://www, whitehouse.gov/blog/inaugural-address.

¹⁷⁹ «Obama Pledges Support for Tunisia», Al-Jazeera, October 8, 2011, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/10/08/170747.html.

¹⁸⁰ Indyk, Lieberthal, and O’Hanlon, Bending History, pp. 146—48. Смотри также комментарии президента, «Remarks by the President on the Situation in Egypt», http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/02/01/remarks-president-situation-egypt.

¹⁸¹ «Clinton Calls for ‘Peaceful, Orderly Transition’ in Egypt», McClatchy, January 30, 2012, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/01/30/107726/clinton-calls-for-peaceful-orderly.html.

¹⁸² Steven Cook, The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011), pp. 272–307.

¹⁸³ James Mann, The Obamians: The Struggle Inside the White House to Define American Power (New York: Viking, 2012).

¹⁸⁴ Там же. С. 279.

¹⁸⁵ Helene Cooper, Mark Landler, and David E. Sanger, «In U. S. Signals to Egypt, Обама Straddled a Rift», New York Times, February 12, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/world/middleeast/13diplomacy.hnml?pagewanted=all.

¹⁸⁶ Robin Wright, Rock the Casbah: Rage and Rebellion Across the Islamic World (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012); Marc Lynch, The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East (New York: Public Affairs, 2012), pp. 43–66.

¹⁸⁷ Alaa Al Aswany, От the State of Egypt: What Made the Revolution Inevitable (New York: Vintage, 2011); Narek Osman, Egypt on the Brink (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2011).

¹⁸⁸ Alexis de Tocqueville, The Old Regime and the French Revolution (New York: Anchor, 1955), p. 177.

¹⁸⁹ У «Мусульманского братства» было большинство в 38 % голосов и 235 из 498 мест в насчитывающем 508 мест Народном собрании (символические 10 мест заполнялись по назначению президента страны). Исламская салафитская партия «Аль-Нур», даже чуть более радикальная, чем «Братья-мусульмане», получила 28 % и 123 места.

¹⁹⁰ Martin Indyk, Кеnneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael E. O’Hanlon, «Scoring Obama’s Foreign Policy», Foreign Affairs, May/June 2012, p.

¹⁹¹ Tony Smith, America’s Mission: The United States and the Worldwide Struggle for Democracy in the Twentieth Century (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994).

¹⁹² Mary Elise Sarotte, 1989: The Struggle to Create Post-Cold War Europe (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).

¹⁹³ Lynch, Arab Uprising.

¹⁹⁴ Vali Nasr, «Economics Versus Extremism», Newsweek International, November 2, 2009, pp. 56–58.

¹⁹⁵ Steven Cook, «On the Economy, Egypt’s New Leaders Should Follow Mubarak», Bloomberg View, May 26, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011—05–26/on-the-economy-egypt-s-new-leaders-should-follow-mubarak.html.

¹⁹⁶ Ari Paul, «Egypt’s Labor Pains: For Workers the Revolution Has Just Begun», Dissent, Fall 2011, http://www.dissentmagazine.org/article/?article=4048.

¹⁹⁷ Sinan Ulgen, «Supporting Arab Economics in Transition», International Economic Bulletin, July 5, 2012, http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/07/05/supporting-arab-economics-intransition/ck6p.

¹⁹⁸ «Unfinished Business», Economist, February 4, 2012, p. 49.

¹⁹⁹ Ulgen, «Supporting Arab Economics in Transition».

²⁰⁰ Ibrahim Saif, Challenges of Egypt’s Economic Transition (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011), p. 4, доступно по адресу; http://carnegieendowment.org/files/egypt_econ_trnsition.hdf.

²⁰¹ Hafez Ghanem, “Two Economic Priorities for Post-Election Egypt: Macro-Stabilization and Corruption Control», Brookings Institution, June 25, 2012, http://www.brookings, edu/research/opinions/2012/06/25-post-election-egypt-ghanem.

²⁰² Там же.

²⁰³ Carrie Rosefsky Wickham, Mobilizing Islam: Religion, Activism, and Political Change in Egypt (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002).

²⁰⁴ Jean-Paul Carvalho, A Theory of the Islamic Revival, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, March 2009, p. 39, http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/Research/wp/pdf/paper424.pdf.

²⁰⁵ Nathan J. Brown, When Victory Becomes an Option: Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood Confronts Success (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012), доступно по электронному адресу: http://carnegieendowment.org/files/brotherhood_success.pdf.

²⁰⁶ Zeinab Abul-Magd, «The Egyptian Republic of Retired Generals», Foreign Policy, May 8, 2012, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/05/08/the_egyptian_republic_of_retired-generals.

²⁰⁷ David Sanger, Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (New York: Crown, 2012), pp. 314—15.

²⁰⁸ «The Other Arab Spring», Economist, August 11, 2012, http://www.economist.com/node/21560243?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/the_other_arab_spring; Vali Nasr, Forces of Fortune: The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What It Will Mean for Our World (New York: Free Press, 2009); Christopher M. Schroeder, «The Middle East Could Be a Cradle of Innovation», Harvard Business Review, October 12, 2012; http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2012/10/the_middle_east_could_be_a cra.html; Wright, Rock the Casbah.

²⁰⁹ Michael Mandelbaum, Democracy’s Good Name: The Rise and Risks of the World’s Most Popular Form of Government (New York: Public Affairs, 2007), pp. 91–92.

²¹⁰ «Hilary Clinton Deserves Credit for U. S. Role in Libya: View», Bloomberg View, September 7, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011—09–08/hillary-clinton-deserves-credit-for-the-positive-u-s-role-in-libyz-view.html.

²¹¹ Mann, The Obamians, p. 279.

²¹² William Arkin and Dana Priest, Top Secret America: The Rise of the New American Security State (Boston: Little, Brown, 2011).

²¹³ Sanger, Confront and Conceal, pp. 243—72.

²¹⁴ Peter Bergen, «Warrior in Chief», New York Times, April 29, 2012, p. SR1.

²¹⁵ David Rodhe, «The Obama Doctrine», Foreign Policy, March/April 2012, pp. 65–69.

²¹⁶ Greg Miller, «U.S. Set to Keep Kill Lists for Years», Washington Post, October 24, p. A1.

²¹⁷ Майкл О’Хэнлон считает, что администрации не хватает эффективной стратегии работы с недееспособными государствами. См.: «Obama’s Weak and Failing States Agenda», Washington Quarterly 35, no. (Fall 2012): 67–80.

²¹⁸ Hassan Bin Talal, «U.S. Can’t Abandon the Middle East», Los Angeles Times, April 17, 2012, http://articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-hassan-middle-east-engagement-20120417.

²¹⁹ Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1991), pp. 167—83.

²²⁰ Andrew Scott Cooper, The Oil Kings: How the U.S., Iran, and Saudi Arabia Changed the Balance of Power in the Middle East (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2011), pp. 137—98.

²²¹ См.: Gene Whitney, Carl E. Behrens, and Carol Glover. «U.S. Fossil Fuel Resources: Terminology, Reporting, and Summary», U. S. Congressional Research Service, March 25, 2011, p. 22, Table 6, http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R40872_20110325.pdf.

²²² Alex de Marban, «North Dakota Crude Elbows Alaska Oil Out of Washington Refinery», Alaska Dispatch, June 13, 2012, http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/north-dakota-crude-elbows-alaska-oil-out-washington-refinery.

²²³ Thomas Friedman, «The Other Arab Spring», New York Times, April 8, 2012, p. SR1.

²²⁴ «Lights Out: Another Threat to a Fragile Country’s Stability», Economist, October 8, 2011, http://www.economist.com/node/21531495.

²²⁵ Michael Kugelman, «Pakistan’s Climate Challenge», Foreign Policy, May 9, 2012, http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ 2012/05/09/pakistans_climate_change.

²²⁶ John Bongaarts, Zeba Sathar, and Arshad Mahmoud, «Seven Billion People, How Many Pakistanis?» News, November 1, 2011, http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-9—75429-Seven-billion-people-how-many-Pakistanis; «Pakistan to Become the World’s 4^th Largest Nation by 2050: Survey», Pakistan Defence, June 28, 2010, http://www.defence.pk/forums/economy-development/63702-pakistan-becomes-4th-largest-nation-population-2050-a.html.

²²⁷ Robert Worth, «Earth Is Parched Where Syrian Farms Thrived», New York Times, October 13, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/14/world/middleeast/14syria.html.

²²⁸ Ruchir Sharma, Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles (New York: Norton, 2012), p. 23.

²²⁹ Zuliu Hu and Mohsin S. Khan, Why Is China Growing So Fast? Economic Issues series, no. 8 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 1997), p. 1, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues8/issue8.hdf.

²³⁰ Niall Ferguson, «Mideast’s Next Dilemma: With Turkey Flexing Its Muscles, We May Soon Face a Revived Ottoman Empire», Newsweek, June 19, 2011, http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/06/19/turkey-the-mideast-next-dilemma.html#.

²³¹ Ahmet Davutoglu, Civilizational Transformation and the Muslim World (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: Mahir Publications, 1994); «The Davutoglu Effect», Economist, October 21, 2010, http://www.economist.com/node/17276420.

²³² Sharma, Breakout Nations, p. 119.

²³³ Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future (New York: Norton, 2006).

²³⁴ Halil Karaveli, «Why Does Turkey Want Regime Change in Syria?» National Interest, July 23, 2012, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/why-does-turkey-want-regime-change-syria-7227.

²³⁵ «Alevis Fire at Government in Ongoing Cemevi Quarrel», Hurriyet Daily News, August 11, 2012, http://www.hurrietdailynews.com/alevis-fire-at-government-in-ongoing-cemevi-quarrel.aspx?pageID=238&nID=25298&NewsCatID=339.

²³⁶ «Growing Less Mild», Economist, April 14, 2012, p. 61.

²³⁷ Halil M. Karaveli, «Why Turkey Is Not Going to Help Midwife a Pluralist Syria», Turkey Analyst 5, no. 15, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, August 13, 2012, http://www.silkroadstudies.org/news/inside/turkey/2012/120813a.html.

²³⁸ Там же.

²³⁹ «Erdogan Lambasts Opposition, Says Syrian Crisis Not Sectarian», Today’s Zaman, May 15, 2012, http://www.sundayszaman.com/sunday/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=280401.

²⁴⁰ Anthony Shadid, «Turkey Predicts Alliance with Egypt as Regional Anchors», New York Times, September 19, 2011, p. A4.

²⁴¹ Matt Bradley, «Saudi Arabia Closes Embassy in Egypt», Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2012, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230472330457737191218060218.html?mod=WSJ_World_LEFTSecondNews.

²⁴² Tony Karon, «Does Qatar Share the West’s Agenda in Libya?» Time, October 5, 2011, http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/10/05/does-qatar-share-the-west-agenda-in-libya/; Rod Norland and David Kirkpatrick, «Islamists’ Growing Sway Raises Questions for Libya», New York Times, September 14, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/15/world/africa/in-libya-islamists-growing-sway-raises-questions, html?pagewanted=all.

²⁴³ Golnaz Esfandiari, «Qatar Conquers Iran’s Airspace», Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, November 5, 2011, http://www.rferl.org/content/qatar_conquers_irans_airspace/24382213.html.

²⁴⁴ Sharma, Breakout Nations, p. 213; Vali Nasr, «Will Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?», Bloomberg View, May 23, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011—05–23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html.

²⁴⁵ Sharma, Breakout Nations, p. 216.

²⁴⁶ Robert Kaplan, The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate (New York: Random House, 2012), p. 258.

²⁴⁷ Kiren Aziz Chaudhry, The Price of Wealth: Economies an Institutions in the Middle East (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1997); Thomas W. Lippman, Saudi Arabia on the Edge: The Uncertain Future of an American Ally (Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2012).

²⁴⁸ Toby Jones, Desert Kingdom: How Oil and Water Forged Modern Saudi Arabia (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2010).

²⁴⁹ Nasr, The Shia Revival, pp. 147—68.

²⁵⁰ Интервью с бывшим иранским официальным лицом, июль 2011 года.

²⁵¹ Джеффри Бейдер, работавший по Китаю в Белом доме при Обаме, пишет о вере президента Обамы в то, что Америка игнорировала Азию, потому что сосредоточивала все свое внимание на Ближнем Востоке и Аль-Каиде, см. у: Jeffrey Bader, Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012); см. также: David M. Lampton, «China and the United States: Beyond Balance», Asia Policy 14 (July 2012): 41.

²⁵² Там же.

²⁵³ Hillary Clinton, «America’s Pacific Century», Foreign Policy, November 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century.

²⁵⁴ Там же.

²⁵⁵ Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi, Addressing U. S. – China Strategic Distrust, John L. Thornton China Center Monograph Series, no. 4 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012).

²⁵⁶ Dale Copeland, «Economic Interdependence and the Future of U.S. – China Relations», у: G. John Ikenberry and Michael Mastaduno, eds., International Relations Theory and the Asia-Pacific (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003), pp. 323—52.

²⁵⁷ Henry M. Kissinger, «The Future of U.S. – Chinese Relations: Conflict Is a Choice, Not a Necessity», Foreign Affairs, March/April 2012, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137245/henry-a-kissinger/the-future-of-us-chinese-relations.

²⁵⁸ David Smith, «Hillary Clinton Launches African Tour with Veiled Attack on China», Guardian, August 1, 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/01/hillary-clinton-africa-china.

²⁵⁹ Aaron Friedberg, A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia (New York: Norton, 2011).

²⁶⁰ Arvind Subramanian, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance (Washington, DC: Institute of International Economics, 2012); Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, 2^nd ed. (New York: Penguin Press, 2012).

²⁶¹ Zachary Karabell, Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World’s Prosperity Depends on It (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009); Robyn Meredith, The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us (New York: Norton, 2007); Nicholas Lardy, Sustaining China’s Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute, 2012).

²⁶² Kathrin Hille, «Clinton Struggles to Soothe Beijing Fears», Financial Times, September 5, 2012, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9b296eec-f728—11el-8e9e-00144feabdc0.html#25abzfG2p.

²⁶³ Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell, «How China Sees America», Foreign Affairs, September/October 2012, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138009/andrew-j-nathan-and-andrew-scobell/how-china-sees-america?page=show; Robert Ross, «The Problem with the Pivot», Foreign Affairs, Nоember/December 2012, pp. 70–82.

²⁶⁴ Thom Shanker, «Panetta Set to Discuss U. S. Shift in Asia Trip», New York Tomes, September 14, 2012, p. A4.

²⁶⁵ Kissinger, «Future of U.S. – Chinese Relations».

²⁶⁶ Henry M. Kissinger, On China (New York: Penguin Press, 2012), pp. 487–530; Zbigniev Brzezinski, Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power (New York: Basic Books, 2012), pp. 155—82.

²⁶⁷ Daniel Yergin, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Making of the Modern World (New York: Penguin Press, 2011), p. 222.

²⁶⁸ Rebecca M. Nelson, Mary Jane Bolle, and Shayerah Ilias, U. S. Trade and Investment in the Middle East and North Africa: Overview and Issues for Congress, Congressional Research Service report, January 20, 2012, http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/183739.hdf.

²⁶⁹ Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook, 2011 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2011), http://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF042/11827—9781616351489/11827—9781626351489/11827—9781616351489.xml?rskey=J2QZQv&result=1&q=Direction%20of%20Trade%Statistics%20Yearbook,%202011.

²⁷⁰ Qian Xuewen, «Sino-Arab Economic Trade and Cooperation: Situations, Tasks< Issues, and Strategies», Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies 5, no. 4 (2011): 68.

²⁷¹ Kissinger, «Future of U.S. – Chinese Relations».

²⁷² Bernard Gordon, «Trading Up in Asia», Foreign Affairs, July/August 2012, http://foreignaffairs.com/print/134960.

²⁷³ Jane Perlez, «Clinton Makes Effort to Rechannel the Rivalry with China», New York Times, July 8, 2012, p. A7.

²⁷⁴ Joseph Nye «Energy Independence in an Independent World», Project Syndicate, July 11, 2012, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/energy-independence-in-an-independent-world.

²⁷⁵ «China to Built $2bn Railway for Iran», Telegraph, September 7, 2010, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-busuness/7985812/China-to-build-2bn-railway-for-Iran.html.

²⁷⁶ Myles Smith, «China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Project Brings Political Risks», Central Asia Institute Analyst, John Hopkins University, March 7, 2012, http://www/cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5731.

²⁷⁷ «Turkey, China Sign Two Nuclear Agreements During PM’s Visit», Daily Hurriyet, April 10, 2012, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-china-sign-two-nuclear-agreements-during-pms-visit.aspz?pageID=238&nID=18032&NewsCatID=348. В этой статье приводится цифра объема товарооборота в 2010 году в размере 19,5 миллиарда долларов США; Ассоциация турецких промышленников и предпринимателей (TUSIAD) в Пекине приводит цифру за 2012 год в размере 25 миллиардов долларов США.

²⁷⁸ Интервью с топ-менеджерами нефтяных компаний, инвестирующих в Ираке, а также с представителями Регионального правительства Турецкого Курдистана, август и сентябрь 2012 года.

²⁷⁹ Kent Calder, The New Continentalism: Energy and Twenty-First Century Eurasian Geopolitics (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2012), pp. xxxi – xxxii.

²⁸⁰ Yergin, Quest, p. 210.

²⁸¹ James Fallows, China Airborne (New York: Pantheon, 2012), p. 98.

²⁸² Yergin, Quest, p. 172.

²⁸³ Robert Kaplan, «Center Stage for the 21^st Century: Power Plays in the Indian Ocean», Foreign Affairs, April/May 2009, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/64832.

²⁸⁴ Preparing for China’s Urban Billion (San Francisco: McKinsey Global Institute, 2009), p. 18, цитируется по: Fallows, China Airborne, p. 101.

²⁸⁵ John Lee, «China’s Geostrategic Search for Oil», Washington Quarterly 35, no. 3 (Summer 2012): 75–92.

²⁸⁶ Steve Coll, Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power (New York: Penguin Press, 2012), p. 240.

²⁸⁷ Там же. С. 240–241.

²⁸⁸ Yergin, Quest, p. 222—23.

²⁸⁹ Calder, The New Continentalism, р. 3.

²⁹⁰ John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: Norton. 2001), pp. 360–402.

²⁹¹ Coll, Private Empire, p. 243.

²⁹² Robert Kaplan, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power (New York: Random House, 2010).

²⁹³ Calder, The New Continentalism, р. 36.

²⁹⁴ Farhan Bokhari and Kathrin Hille, «Pakistan in Talks to Hand Port to China», Financial Times, August 31, 2012, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5c58608c-f2a6—11el-ac41—00144feabdc0, html#axzz25gV7aQn.

²⁹⁵ Calder, The New Continentalism, рp. xxxi – xxxiii.

²⁹⁶ Robert Kaplan, «The Geography of Chinese Power», Foreign Affairs, May /June 2010, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66205/robert-d-kaplan/the-geography-of-chinese-power?page=4.

²⁹⁷ Calder, The New Continentalism, р. 8.

²⁹⁸ Susan Shirk, China: Fragile Superpower (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008) pp. 257—58.

²⁹⁹ Calder, The New Continentalism, р. 23.

³⁰⁰ Tony Smith, The Pattern of Imperialism: The United States, Great Britain, and the Late-Industrializing World Since 1815 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981).

³⁰¹ Coll, Private Empire, p. 241.

³⁰² Kissinger, On China, pp.513—30.

³⁰³ См. Arthur S. Herman, To Rule the Waves: How the British Navy Shaped the Modern World (New York: HarperCollins, 2004).

³⁰⁴ Dambisa Mayo, Winner Takes All: China’s Race for Resources and What It Means for the World (New York: Basic Books, 2012).

³⁰⁵ Debora Brautigam, The Dragon’s Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa (New York: Oxford University Press, 2010).

³⁰⁶ Vali Nasr, «International Politics, Domestic Imperatives, and the Rise of Politics of Identity: Sectarianism in Pakistan, 1979–1997», Comparative Politics 32. No. 2 (January 2000): 171—90; Vali Nasr, «The Rise of Sunni Militancy in Pakistan: The Changing Role of Islamism and the Ulama in Society and Politics», Modern Asian Studies 34, no. 1 (January 2000): 139—80.

³⁰⁷ Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future (New York: Norton, 2006), pp. 147—68.

³⁰⁸ James Lamont and Farhan Bokhari, «China-Pakistan Military Links Upset India», Financial Times, November 27, 2009, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/0/9d5497f0-db8d-11de-9424—00144feabdc0.html.

³⁰⁹ Там же.

³¹⁰ «Pakistan, China Have Shared Interests in Peace Promotion: PM», Nation, May 15, 2012, http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/islamabad/15-May-2012/pakistan-china-have-shared-interests-in-peace-promotion-pm.

³¹¹ Dennis Kux, The United States and Pakistan, 1947–2000: Disenchanted Allies (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001).

³¹² Harsh V. Pant, «The Pakistan Thorn in China-India-U.S. Relations», Washington Quarterly 35, no. 1 (Winter 2012): 83.

³¹³ John W. Garver, «Sino-Indian Rapprochement and the Sino-Pakistan Entente», Political Science Quarterly 111, no. 2 (Summer 1996), 326—33.