Ëåâîå ïîëóøàðèå – ïðàâèëüíûå ðåøåíèÿ. Ìûñëèòü è äåéñòâîâàòü: êàê èíòóèöèÿ ïîääåðæèâàåò ëîãèêó Ðîçåíöâåéã Ôèë

Seligman, Martin E. P. Learned Optimism: How to Change Your Mind and Your Life. New York: Vintage Books, 2006.

Shapira, Zur. Risk Taking: A Managerial Perspective. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1995.

Sharot, Tali. The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain.

Shaw, George Bernard. “Maxims for Revolutionists.” In Man and Superman: A Comedy and Philosophy. London: Penguin Books, 2000.

Shenk, David. The Genius in All of Us: Why Everything You’ve Been Told About Genetics, Talent, and IQ Is Wrong. New York: Anchor, 2011.

Silver, Nate. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t. New York: Penguin, 2012.

Smith, Adam. The Money Game. New York: Vintage Books, 1976.

Sokolove, Michael. Hustle: The Myth, Life, and Lies of Pete Rose. New York: Simon&Schuster, 1990.

Stever, H. Guyford, and James J. Haggerty. Flight. New York: Time Inc., 1965.

Sutton, Robert I. Weird Ideas That Work: 11 1/2 Ways to Promote, Manage, and Sustain Innovation. New York: Penguin, 2001.

Syed, Matthew. Bounce: The Myth of Talent and the Power of Practice: Beckham, Serena, Mozart, and the Science of Success. New York: Harper, 2011.

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House, 2007.

Tetlock, Philip E. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005.

Thaler, Richard H., The Winner’s Curse: Paradoxes and Anomalies of Economic Life. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992.

Thaler, Richard H., and Cass Sunstein. Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2008.

Trilling, Lionel. Sincerity and Authenticity. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1971.

Whitacre, Ed, with Leslie Cauley. American Turnaround: Reinventing AT&T and GM and the Way We Do Business in the USA. New York: Business Plus, 2013.

Wolfe, Tom. The Right Stuff. New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 1979.

Yeager, Chuck, Bob Cardenas, Bob Hoover, Jack Russell, and James Young. The Quest for Mach One: A First-Person Account of Breaking the Sound Barrier. New York: Penguin, 1997.

Yeager, Chuck, and Leo Janos. Yeager: An Autobiography. New York: Bantam Books, 1985.

Yeung, Dr. Rob. Confidence: The Power to Take Control and Live the Life You Want. Harlow, UK: Pearson Education Ltd., 2011.

Zweig, Jason. Your Money and Your Brain: How the New Science of Neuroeconomics Can Help Make You Rich. New York: Simon&Schuster, 2007.

Ñòàòüè

Adams, Tim. “How a Book about Baseball Statistics Changed the Way We Think about Football.” Esquire, September 2011, 198–203.

Ahmed, Murad. “Jobs: The Special One.” The Times, October 29, 2011, 16.

Alpert, Marc, and Howard Raiffa. “A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assessors.” Unpublished manuscript, 1969. In Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, edited by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky. Cambridge, UK: CambridgeUniversity Press, 1982.

Ashenfelter, Orley. “Predicting the Quality and Prices of Bordeaux Wine.” Economic Journal 118, no. 529 (June 2008): F174–F184.

AT&T Wireless Services, Inc. Proxy Statement Pursuant to Section 14 (a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, March 22, 2004.

Austen, Ian. “Bicycle Thieves: World-Class Cycling’s Drug Trade.” New York Times, September 12, 2012, C7.

Austin, Michael. “Building the Perfect Arc: Research Shows Players Need to Keep Shot Arc around 45 Degrees.” Winning Hoops, May/June 2010, 20–27.

Baker, Peter, and Jim Rutemberg. “The Long Road to a Clinton Exit.” New York Times, June 8, 2008, A1.

Bazerman, Max H., and William F. Samuelson. “I Won the Auction but I Don’t Want the Prize.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 27 (1983): 618–634.

Bendery, Jennifer. “Nancy Pelosi Predicts 6–3 Supreme Court Vote in Favor of Health Care Law.” Huffington Post, April 4, 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/04/nancy-pelosi-health-care-aw_n_1402908.html.

Bennis, Warren. “Acting the Part of a Leader.” Businessweek, September 14, 2009, 80.

Bishop, Greg. “Pacquiao Stunned in Sixth Round.” New York Times, December 9, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/09/sports/juanmanuel-marquez-knocks-out-manny-pacquiao-in-sixth-round.html.

Bornstein, David. “The Dawn of Evidence-Based Budget.” New York Times, May 30, 2012, http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/worthy-of-government-funding-prove-it.

Boyle, Elizabeth, and Zur Shapira. “The Liability of Leading: Battling Aspiration and Survival Goals in Jeopardy’s Tournament of Champions.” Organization Science 23, no.4, (2012): 1110–1113.

Brooks, David. “The Fatal Conceit.” New York Times, October 26, 2009, A31.

Byers, Dylan. “Dick Morris Fesses Up.” Politico.com, November 13, 2012, http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/dick-morris-fesses-up-149453.html.

Cain, Daylian M., and Allan S. Detsky, “Everyone’s a Little Bit Biased (Even Physicians).” JAMA 299, no.24 (June 25, 2008): 2893–2895.

Camerer, Colin, and Dan Lovallo. “Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach.” American Economic Review 89, no 1 (1999): 306–318.

Campbell, Charles A. “A Decision Theory Model of Entrepreneurial Acts.” Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice 17, no. 1 (1992): 21–27.

Capen, Edward C., Robert V. Clapp, and William M. Campbell. “Competitive Bidding in High Risk Situations.” Journal of Petroleum Technology 23 (1971): 641–653.

Casscells, Ward, Arno Schoenberger, and Thomas Graboys “Interpretation by Physicians of Clinical Laboratory Results.” New England Journal of Medicine 299: 18 (1978) 999–1001.

Cauley, Leslie. “BellSouth Likes to Go It Alone.” USA Today, October 31, 2005, http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/news/techpolicy/business/2005–10–31-bellsouth-mergers_x.htm?POE=TECISVA.

Chakrabortty, Aditya. “Haven’t the Politicians Desperately Scrambling to Form a Government Heard of the Winner’s Curse?” The Guardian, November 5, 2010, 5.

College Board. Student Descriptive Questionnaire. Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing Service, 1976–1977.

Corporate Finance Advisory and Mergers&Acquisitions. “Uncorking M&A: The 2013 Vintage.” J. P. Morgan, December 2012.

Craggs, Tommy. “Say-It-Ain’t-So Joe.” SF Weekly, July 6, 2005, http://www.sfweekly.com/2005–07–06/news/say-it-ain-t-so-joe.

Critchley, Simon, and Jamieson Webster. “The Gospel According to ‘Me’.” New York Times, June 30, 2013, SR8.

DeBondt, Walter F., and Richard H. Thaler. “Financial Decision-Making in Markets and Firms: A Behavioral Perspective.” Handbooks in OR&MS 9 (1995): 385–410.

Dew, Nicholas, Saras Sarasvathy, Stuart Read, and Robert Wiltbank. “Affordable Loss: Behavioral Aspects of the Plunge Decision.” Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal 3 (2009): 105–126.

Diaz, Jaime. “Perils of Putting: Duffers, Take Heart. A New Study by the PGA Tour Reveals That When It Comes to Putting, the Pros Aren’t So Hot Either.” Sports Illustrated, April 3, 1989.

Dosi, Giovanni, and Dan Lovallo, “Rational Entrepreneurs or Optimistic Martyrs? Some Considerations on Technological Regimes, Corporate Entries, and the Evolutional Role of Decision Biases.” In Technological Innovation: Oversights and Foresights, edited by Raghu Garud, Praveen Nattar Nayyar, and Zur Baruch Shapira, 41–68. New York: Cambridge Innovation: Oversights and Foresights, edited by Raghu Garud, Praveen Nattar Nayyar, and Zur Baruch Shapira, 41–68. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997.

Dubner, Stephen J., and Steven D. Levitt. “A Star Is Made.” New York Times, May 7, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/07/magazine/07wwln_freak.html?pagewanted=all.

Dunne, Timothy, Mark J. Roberts, and Larry Samuelson. “Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit U. S. Manufacturing Industries.” Rand Journal of Economics 19, no. 4 (Winter 1988): 233–271.

Eckhardt, Roger. “Stan Ulam, John von Neumann, and the Monte Carlo Method.” Los Alamos Science 15, Special Issue (1987): 131–137.

Eichler, Jeremy. “String Theorist: Christian Tetzlaff Rethinks How a Violin Should Sound.” New Yorker, August 27, 2012, 34–39.

Ericsson, K. Anders, Ralf Th. Krampe, and Clemens Tesch-Römer. “The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance.” Psychological Review 100, no. 3 (1993): 363–406.

Ericsson, K. Anders, Michael J. Prietula, and Edward T. Cokely, “The Making of an Expert,” Harvard Business Review, July—August 2007, 114–121.

Feynman, Richard P. “What Is and What Should Be the Role of Scientific Culture in Modern Society.” Address to the Galileo Symposium, Italy, 1964. In The Pleasure of Findings Things Out: The Best Short Works of Richard P. Feynman, 106–107. London: Penguin, 1999.

Fienberg, Stephen E. “When Did Bayesian Inference Become Bayesian?” Bayesian Analysis 1, no. 1 (2006): 1–40.Fisher, Kenneth L. “The Eight Biggest Mistakes Investors Make.” UT Today 1 (2007): 50–53.

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Mette K. Skamris Holm, and Suren L. Buhl. “How (In) Accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?” Journal of the American Planning Association 71 (2005): 131–146.

“Former FEMA Chief Says Bush Was Engaged but Overconfident.” Associated Press, March 1, 2006, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,186546,00.html.

Fox, Jeremy. “Frequentist vs. Bayesian Statistics: Resources to Help You Choose,” http://oikosjournal.wordpress.com/2011/10/11/frequentistvs-bayesian-statistics-resources-to-help-you-choose/.

Friedman, Thomas L. “Obama’s Best-Kept Secrets.” New York Times, October 21, 2012, SR1.

Gapper, John. “McKinsey’s Model Springs a Leak.” Financial Times, March 10, 2011, 9.

Gawande, Atul. “The Bell Curve: What Happens When Patients Find out How Good Their Doctors Really Are?” New Yorker, December 6, 2004, 82–91.

Gino, Francesca, Zachariah Sharek, and Don A. Moore. “Keeping the Illusion of Control Under Control: Ceilings, Floors, and Imperfect Calibration.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processe 114, no. 2 (March 2011), 104–114.

Goffee, Robert, and Gareth Jones. “Managing Authenticity: The Great Paradox of Leadership.” Harvard Business Review (December 2005): 87–94.

Gollwitzer, Peter M., and Ronald F. Kinney. “Effects of Deliberative and Implemental Mind-sets on Illusion of Control.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 56, no. 4 (1989): 531–542.Goodstein, Laurie. “Serenity Prayer Skeptic Now Credits Niebuhr.” New York Times, November 28, 2009, A11.

Gopnik, Adam. “Life Studies: What I Learned When I Learned to Draw.” New Yorker, June 27, 2011, 56–63.

“Greater Prudhoe Bay,” BP Fact Sheet, http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/STAGING/global_assets/downloads/A/abp_wwd_alaska_prudhoe_bay_fact_sheet.pdf.

Hambrick, David Z., and Elizabeth J. Meinz. “Sorry, Strivers: Talent Matters.” New York Times, November 20, 2011, SR12.

Hardy, Quentin. “Intel Tries to Secure Its Footing Beyond PCs,” New York Times, April 15, 2013, B1.

Harford, Tim. “Screening: It’s All in the Numbers.” Financial Times/FT.com Magazine, December 10/11, 2011.

Hayward, Mathew L. A., Dean A. Shepherd, and Dale Griffin. “A Hubris Theory of Entrepreneurship.” Management Science 52, no. 2 (2006): 160–172.

Headd, Brian. “Redefining Business Success: Distinguishing Between Closure and Failure.” Journal Small Business Economics. 1 (1) (2004): 51–61.

Hogarth, Robin M., and Natalia Karelaia. “Entrepreneurial Success and Failure: Confidence and Fallible Judgment.” Organization Science 23 (2012): 1733–1747.

Humphrey, Elizabeth King. “Be Sad and Succeed.” Scientific American, March 3, 2010, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=besad-and-succeed.

Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “On the Psychology of Prediction.” Psychological Review 80 (1973): 237–257.

Kahneman, Daniel, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony. “Before You Make that Big Decision…” Harvard Business Review (June 2011): 51–60.

Keogh, Brian. “Harrington and the Man with Two Brains.” Irish Golf News, March 6, 2013, http://www.irishgolfdesk.com/news-files/2013/3/6/harrington-and-the-man-with-two-brains.html.

Knaup, Amy E. “Survival and Longevity in the Business Employment Dynamics data.” Monthly Labor Review. Vol. 128, Iss. 5, (May 2005): 50–56.

Kopecki, Dawn, Clea Benson, and Phil Mattingly. “Dimon Says Overconfidence Fueled Loss He Can’t Defend.” Bloomberg News, June 14, 2012, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012–06–14/dimon-saysoverconfidence-fueled-loss-he-can-t-defend.html.

Kreps, Daniel. “Lennon’s ‘A Day in the Life’ Lyrics Sell for äîëëàðîâ1.2 Million.” Rolling Stone, June 18, 2010, http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/lennons-a-day-in-the-life-lyrics-sell-for-1–2-million-20100618.

Kroichick, Ron. “Giants’ Wilson Hopes Hitters Fear the Beard.” San Francisco Chronicle, October 7, 2010, http://www.sfgate.com/sports/kroichick/article/Giants-Wilson-hopes-hitters-fear-the-beard-3171420.php.

Kruger, J. “Lake Wobegone Be Gone! The ‘Below-average’ Effect and the Egocentric Nature of Comparative Ability Judgments.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77 (1999): 221–232.

“Lance Armstrong: ‘Impossible to Win Without Doping’.” USA Today, June 28, 2013, http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/cycling/2013/06/28/lance-armstrong-impossible-win-tour-de-france-doping/2471413/.

Langer, Ellen J. “The Illusion of Control.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32 (1975): 311–328.

Latour, Almar, and Shawn Young. “Two Who May Pop the Question to AT&T Wireless – Intent on Wireless Expansion, SBC Communications’ Whitacre Takes Risks Seeking Acquisitions.” Wall Street Journal, February 10, 2004, B1.

Leonhardt, David. “Science and Art at Odds on the Field of Dreams.” New York Times, August 29, 2005, http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/28/sports/28iht-THEORIES.html.

Lewis, Michael. “In Defense of the Boom.” New York Times Magazine, October 27, 2002, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/27/magazine/27DEFENSE.html.

“Out of Their Tree.” Sports Illustrated, March 1, 2004, http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1031308/index.htm.

Lion, Valérie. “L’Entretien: Bertrand Piccard ‘Explorer, c’est aller au-delà des évidences’.” L’Express no. 3187, August 1, 2012, 8–11.

Loomis, Carol J. “Why Carly’s Bet Is Failing.” Fortune, February 7, 2005, 50–64.

Lovallo, Dan, Carmina Clarke, and Colin Camerer. “Robust Analogizing and the Outside View: Two Empirical Tests of Case-based Decision Making.” Strategic Management Journal 33, no. 5 (May 2012): 496–512.

Lovallo, Dan, and Daniel Kahneman. “Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives’ Decisions.” Harvard Business Review (July 2003): 56–63.

Lovallo, Dan, and Olivier Sibony. “The Case for Behavioral Strategy,” McKinsey Quarterly 2 (Spring 2010): 30–43.

Lovallo, Dan P., and Olivier Sibony. “Distortions and Deceptions in Strategic Decisions.” McKinsey Quarterly 1 (February 2006): 19–29.

Lovett, Ian. “Tatooed Guy Pivotal in Armstrong Case,” New York Times, October 18, 2012, B11.

Lunsford, J. Lynn, and Daniel Michaels. “Bet on Huge Plane Trips up Airbus.” Wall Street Journal, June 15, 2006, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115027552490479926.html.

Mandard, Stéphane. “Lance Armstrong: Le Tour de France? Impossible de gagner sans dopage.” Le Monde, June 29, 2013, Sport&Forme, 5.

“Manny Pacquiao Will Not Give Up Boxing, Despite Pleas From Family.” BBC, December 10, 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/boxing/20666106.

March, James G., and Zur Shapira. “Managerial Perceptions on Risk and Risk-Taking.” Management Science 33 (1987): 1404–1418.

“Variable Risk Preference and the Focus of Attention.” Psychological Science 99, no. 1 (1992): 172–183.

Martin, Andrew D., et al. “Competing Approaches to Predicting Supreme Court Decision Making.” Perspectives on Politics 2 (2004): 763.

McGeehan, Patrick. “It’s Official – This Is New York’s Hottest Summer.” New York Times, September 1, 2010, A16.

McMaster, Geoff. “School of Business Wins National Stock Market Contest.” ExpressNews, December 19, 2001, http://www.expressnews.ualberta.ca/article.cfm?id=1615.

Mintzberg, Henry. “We’re Overled and Undermanaged.” Business Week, August 17, 2009, 68.

Moore, Don, and Paul J. Healy. “The Trouble with Overconfidence.” Psychological Review 115, no. 2 (April 2008): 502–517.

Moore, Don A., John M. Oesch, and Charlene Zietsma. “What Competition? Myopic Self-Focus in Market-Entry Decisions.” Organization Science 18, no. 3 (May—June 2007): 440–454.

Moran, Callie. “Overconfident Romney Was So Sure of Victory That He Spent 25 Grand on Victory Fireworks.” Capitol Hill Blue, November 9, 2012, http://www.capitolhillblue.com/node/45630.

Murphy, Austin. “Guide to a Broken Tour: Tyler Hamilton Shines a Revealing Light on Cycling’s Drug Era.” Sports Illustrated, September 24, 2012, 18.

“No Sun, No Problem for Plane.” Associated Press in Shanghai Daily, May 4, 2013, A3.

“NTSB Suggests Alcohol Detection Systems on All New Cars.” CBS Local, December 17, 2012, http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2012/12/17/ntsb-suggests-alcohol-detection-systems-on-all-new-cars/.

O’Brien, Miles CNN Anchor Interview, “Veteran NASA Flight Director Discusses Book About Race to the Moon,” CNN Sunday Morning News, May 7, 2000.

Patterson, Orlando. “Our Overrated Inner Self.” New York Times, December 26, 2006, A35.

Pesola, Maija, James Politi, Dan Roberts, and Peter Thal Larsen. “Cingular Grabs AT&TW from Sleeping Vodafone.” Financial Times, February 18, 2004, 44.

“Vodafone Edges Ahead in AT&TW Bidding.” Financial Times, February 17, 2004, 24.

Pfeffer, Jeffrey, and Robert I. Sutton. “Evidence-Based Management.” Harvard Business Review (January 2006): 63–74.

Pinker, Steven. “Malcolm Gladwell, Eclectic Detective.” New York Times, November 15, 2009, BR1.Poulter, Ian. “Opinion.” Golf World (January 2011): 25.

Price, Richard. “An Essay Toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 53 (1763): 370–418.

Raghavan, Anita, Almar Latour, and Jesse Drucker. “Battle Intensifies for AT&T Wireless – Vodafone and Cingular Submit Revised Offers as Others Decline to Bid.” Wall Street Journal Europe, February 16, 2004, A1.

Raiffa, Howard. “Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It All Got Started and Evolved.” Operations Research 50, no. 1 (January—February 2002): 179–185.

Rasmussen, Heather N., Michael F. Scheier, and Joel B. Greenhouse, “Optimism and Physical Health: A Meta-analytic Review,” Annals of Behavioral Medicine, 37 (3) (June 2009): 239–256.

Richards, Carl. “Viewing the Glass as Half Full, but Not Too Full.” New York Times, March 18, 2013, http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/18/viewing-the-glass-as-half-full-but-not-too-full/.

Richtel, Matt. “List of Suitors Said to Narrow for Mobile Giant.” New York Times, February 11, 2004, http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/11/business/list-of-suitors-said-to-narrow-for-mobile-giant.html.

Roll, Richard. “The Hubris Theory of Corporate Takeovers.” Journal of Business 59, no. 2 (1986): 197–216.

Ruger, Theodore W., P. Kim, A. Martin, and K. Quinn. “The Supreme Court Forecasting Project: Legal and Political Science Approaches to Predicting Supreme Court Decisionmaking.” Columbia Law Review 104 (2004): 1150.

Rice, Xan. “Finish Line: An Olympic Marathon Champion’s Tragic Weakness.” New Yorker, May 21, 2012, 48–57.

Sabbagh, Dan. “Vodafone in äîëëàðîâ35bn fight for AT&T Wireless.” The Times, February 16, 2004, http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/article2103013.ece.

Sarasvathy, Saras D. “The Affordable Loss Principle.” Technical Note. Charlottesville, VA: University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, 2006.

Schaefer, Keith. “Natural Gas: Costs Go Down as Learning Curve Goes Up.” June 6, 2009. www.oilandgas-investments.com.

Simonson, Itamar, and Amos Tversky. “Choice in Context: Tradeoff Contrast and Extremeness Aversion.” Journal of Marketing Research 29, no. 3 (1992): 281–295.

Sirower, Mark L., and Sumit Sahni. “Avoiding the ‘Synergy Trap’: Practical Guidance on M&A Decisions for CEOs and Boards.” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 18, no. 3 (Summer 2006): 83–95.

Slusser, Susan. “Can’t Keep Beane Down: No More Talk of Moneyball, Please.” San Francisco Chronicle, July 12, 2009, B1–B7.

Sonmez, Felicia. “Biden Says Supreme Court Will Uphold Health-care Law.” Washington Post, April 1, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/post/vice-president-biden-predicts-supremecourt-wont-rule-health-care-law-unconstitutional/2012/04/01/gIQADBE8oS_blog.html.

Sorkin, Andrew Ross, Michael J. de la Merced, and Jenna Wortham. “AT&T to Buy T-Mobile USA for äîëëàðîâ39 Billion.” New York Times, March 20, 2011, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/att-to-buy-t-mobile-usa-for-39-billion.

Sorkin, Andrew Ross, and Matt Richtel. “Cingular Wins AT&T Wireless in an Early-Morning Drama.” New York Times, February 19, 2004, http://www.nytimes.com/learning/teachers/featured_articles/20040219thursday.html.

Spiegelhalter, David. “Tails You Win: The Science of Chance.” BBC4, December 20, 2012.

Staw, Barry M. “Leadership and Persistence.” In Leadership and Organizational Culture: New Perspectives on Administrative Theory and Practice, edited by Thomas J. Sergiovanni and John E. Corbally, 72–84. Champaign: University of Illinois Press, 1986.

Staw, Barry M. “The Escalation of Commitment to a Course of Action.” Academy of Management Review 6, no. 4 (1981): 577–587.

Stein, Joel. “From Doofus to Genius?” Bloomberg Businessweek, November 29–December 4, 2011, 101.

Stewart, James B. “Eight Days: The Battle to Save the American Financial System.” New Yorker, September 21, 2009, 69.

Stone, Mark Robert, Kevin Thomas, Michael Wilkinson, Andrew M. Jones, Alan St. Clair Gibson, and Kevin G. Thompson. “Effects of Deception on Exercise Performance: Implications for Determinants of Fatigue in Humans.” Medicine&Science in Sports&Exercise 44, (2012): 534–541.

Svenson, Ola. “Are We All Less Risky and More Skillful Than Our Fellow Drivers?” Acta Psychologica 47 (1981): 143–148.

Swartz, Jon. “San Francisco Giants Ride Techball to the Top.” USAToday, March 31, 2013, http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2013/03/31/giants-social-media-world-series-technologh/2013497.

Taber, Joseph John, F. D. Martin, and R. S. Seright. “EOR Screening Criteria Revisited – Part 1: Introduction to Screening Criteria and Enhanced Recovery Field Projects.” SPE Reservoir Engineering 12, no. 3 (August 1997): 189–198.

“The Tale of the ‘Winner’s Curse,’ Bidding Science Saved äîëëàðîâ äîëëàðîâ.” http://www.aapg.org/explorer/2004/12dec/capen.cfm.

Taylor, Shelley E., and Jonathan D. Brown. “Illusion and Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health.” Psychological Bulletin 103, no. 2 (March 1988): 193–210.

Terhune, Chad. “Home Depot, Seeking Growth, Knocks on Contractors’ Doors – CEO looks to stave off critics and gain new customers with building supply unit,” the Wall Street Journal, August 7, 2006 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115491714152328447.html.

Thaler, Richard H. “Shifting Our Retirement Savings into Automatic.” New York Times, April 7, 2013, BU6.

“The Winner’s Curse.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 2, no. 1 (1988): 191–202.

Tierney, John. “From Tinseltown to Splitsville: Just Do the Math.” New York Times, September 19, 2006, A25.

“Trend Analysis of the Sex Ratio at Birth in the United States.” National Vital Statistics Reports 53, no. 20 (June 14, 2005).

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Evidential Impact of Base Rates.” In Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, edited by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1982.

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science 185, no. 4157 (1974): 1124–1131.

US Small Business Administration, “Frequently Asked Questions About Small Business,” (2009) http://www.sba.gov/ADVO/stats/sbfaq.txt.

Vance, Ashlee. “Algorithms on the Prairie.” Bloomberg Businessweek, March 26, 2012, 37–39.

“Vodafone bids for AT&T Wireless: Vodafone and Cingular Square Off in Bids for No. 3 U. S. Wireless Firm at About äîëëàðîâ35 billion,” New York (CNN/Money), February 15, 2004, http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/15/technology/att_bids/.

Walsh, Michael. “Solar-Paneled Plane Completes First Leg of Historic Cross-Country Flight from San Francisco to New York.” New York Daily News, May 4, 2013, http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/all-solar-airplane-making-jfk-article-1.1335172.

Weinstein, Neil D. “Unrealistic Optimism about Future Life Events.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 39, no. 5 (1980): 806–820.

Welch, Jack, and Suzy Welch. “How Not to Succeed in Business.” Business Week, March 2, 2009, 74.

Whitacre, Edward E., Jr. Corporate Acquisitions Can Create Winners: A Case in Point. The CEO Series, Business Leaders, Thought and Action. St. Louis, MO: Washington University, Center for the Study of American Business, 1998.

White, Dominic. “Vodafone Looks to Next Target.” Daily Telegraph, February 25, 2004, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2878078/Vodafone-looks-to-next-target.html.

White, Paul. “‘Moneyball’ Principles Have Become Old Hat.” USA Today, September 21, 2011, 6C.

Wiggins, Robert R., and Timothy W. Ruefli. “Schumpeter’s Ghost: Is Hypercompetition Making the Best of Times Shorter?” Strategic Management Journal 26, no. 10 (2005): 887–911.

Windschitl, P. D., J. Kruger, and E. Simms. “The Influence of Egocentrism and Focalism on People’s Optimism in Competitions: When What Affects Us Equally Affects Me More.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 85 (2003): 389–408.

Wingfield, Nick, and Brian Stelter. “A Juggernaut Stumbles.” New York Times, October 25, 2011, B1.

Witt, Jessica K., Sally A. Linkenauger, and Dennis R. Proffitt, “Get Me Out of This Slump! Visual Illusions Improve Sports Performance.” Psychological Science 23 (2012): 397–399.

Wonacott, Peter. “Path to India’s Market Dotted with Potholes – Savvy Cola Giants Stumble over local agendas; KFC climbs back from the abyss,” The Wall Street Journal, September 12, 2006 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115801500763459902.html.

Wray, Richard. “Cingular’s äîëëàðîâ41bn Forces Vodafone out of AT&T Race.” The Guardian, February 18, 2004, 19.

Yoffie, David B., Ward Bullard, Nikhil Raj, and Suja Vaidyanathan. “VMware Inc. (A).” Harvard Business School Case 9-707-013 (2007).

Zenger, Todd R. “Why Do Employers Only Reward Extreme Performance? Examining the Relationship Among Pay, Performance, and Turnover.” Administrative Science Quarterly 37, no. 2 (1992): 198–219.

Zhang, Zhen-Xin, Gustavo C. Roman, Zhen Hong, Cheng-Bing Wu, Qui-Ming Qu, Jue-Bing Huang, Bing Zhou, Zhi-Ping Geng, Ji-Zing Wu, Hong-Bo Wen, Heng Zhao, and Gwendolyn E P Zahner. “Parkinson’s Disease in China: Prevalence in Beijing, Xian, and Shanghai.” The Lancet 365 (February 12, 2005): 595–597.

Îá àâòîðå

Ôèë Ðîçåíöâåéã – ïðîôåññîð Ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî èíñòèòóòà óïðàâëåí÷åñêîãî ðàçâèòèÿ International Institute for Management Development (IMD) â Ëîçàííå (Øâåéöàðèÿ), ýêñïåðò â îáëàñòè ñòðàòåãèè è îðãàíèçàöèè. Ñîòðóäíè÷àåò ñ âåäóùèìè êîìïàíèÿìè. Ðîçåíöâåéã øåñòü ëåò ðàáîòàë â êîìïàíèè Hewlett-Packard. Äî ïåðåõîäà â IMD áûë äîöåíòîì Ãàðâàðäñêîé øêîëû áèçíåñà. Ñòåïåíü äîêòîðà íàóê ïîëó÷èë â øêîëå áèçíåñà Óîðòîí Ïåíñèëüâàíñêîãî óíèâåðñèòåòà. Àâòîð ìíîãî÷èñëåííûõ òåìàòè÷åñêèõ èññëåäîâàíèé, ðåãóëÿðíî ïóáëèêóåòñÿ â æóðíàëàõ Harvard Business Review, California Management Review, Management Science è Strategic Management Journal. Íàïèñàííàÿ èì â 2007 ãîäó êíèãà «Ýôôåêò îðåîëà… è äðóãèå âîñåìü èëëþçèé, ââîäÿùèå ìåíåäæåðîâ â çàáëóæäåíèå»,[366] áûëà îöåíåíà Wall Street Journal êàê «ãëóáîêèé âçãëÿä íà áèçíåñ è áèçíåñ-êîíñóëüòèðîâàíèå». Íàññèì Íèêîëàñ Òàëåá íàçâàë åå «îäíîé èç ñàìûõ âàæíûõ êíèã ïî ìåíåäæìåíòó âñåõ âðåìåí».

Ñòðàíèöû: «« 123456

×èòàòü áåñïëàòíî äðóãèå êíèãè:

17-ëåòíÿÿ Êåëñè è ïðåäñòàâèòü ñåáå íå ìîãëà, ÷òî âåñüìà çàóðÿäíàÿ ïîäðàáîòêà â öèðêå îáåðíåòñÿ äëÿ í...
Ó÷åáíî-ìåòîäè÷åñêîå ïîñîáèå ïðåäíàçíà÷åíî äëÿ îïòèìèçàöèè ó÷åáíîãî ïðîöåññà è îáåñïå÷åíèÿ ó÷åáíî-èññ...
 íîâîì çàõâàòûâàþùåì è âîëíóþùåì ïðèêëþ÷åíèè Êåëñè æäóò íåáûâàëûå ïîòðÿñåíèÿ: ïîñëå òðàâìû âîçëþáëå...
Ýòà êíèãà ââîäèò ÷èòàòåëÿ â óäèâèòåëüíûé ìèð äóøè. Âñå ìû ïðèõîäèì â ýòîò ìèð ñî ñâîèìè çàäà÷àìè, âî...
Çíàêîìÿñü ñî âòîðîé êíèãîé ñåðèè ïîä ãðèôîì «Ïåðåâîä ñ æåíñêîãî» – «Ìàñòåðñêàÿ ñíîâèäåíèé» – âû ñìîæ...
Âîäà – îãðîìíàÿ ñèëà. Áëàãîäàðÿ åå íåîáûêíîâåííûì ñâîéñòâàì ìîæíî íå òîëüêî çàêàëèòü ñâîé îðãàíèçì, ...